TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Trail Blazersof Thunder, Trail Blazers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$48,654
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,812

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,654 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Thunder51c20,649$10,531 inLost-$10,530.962,29851.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L+65.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6734…2e18backed Trail Blazers49c10,204$5,000 inWon+$5,204.087459.5%44 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Trail Blazers49c8,900$4,361 inWon+$4,539.251,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers49c6,301$3,065 inWon+$3,235.789,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder51c5,000$2,550 inLost-$2,549.991,82052.1%948 W · 872 L+48.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers49c2,222$1,089 inWon+$1,133.222,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked Thunder52c2,115$1,100 inLost-$1,1001050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Thunder52c2,115$1,100 inLost-$1,10048054.2%260 W · 220 L+14.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3445…7488backed Trail Blazers49c1,020$500 inWon+$520.414100%4 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+70.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Trail Blazers49c1,000$490 inWon+$51019448.5%94 W · 100 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers49c661$324 inWon+$337.112,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Trail Blazers49c625$306 inWon+$318.7530351.8%157 W · 146 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers48c559.62$269 inWon+$2911,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Trail Blazers48c404.62$194 inWon+$210.42,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9975…e7e6backed Thunder52c384.62$200 inLost-$2001010%1 W · 9 L-4.4wins-0.44per pick54cpaid-81.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x1a90…8218backed Thunder52c365.38$190 inLost-$19011854.2%64 W · 54 L+0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers49c211$103 inWon+$107.616,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Thunder52c192.31$100 inLost-$1005455.6%30 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Trail Blazers50c136$68 inWon+$6813644.9%61 W · 75 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed Thunder52c96.15$50 inLost-$5012251.6%63 W · 59 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Trail Blazers48c81.92$39 inWon+$42.680148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda3…ef65backed Thunder51c50$26 inLost-$25.537253.5%199 W · 173 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c68…fea4backed Thunder52c28.85$15 inLost-$152853.6%15 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb9d…b033backed Thunder52c20$10 inLost-$10.43151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.