NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xacdedd6c43ff5c08429ecebd1a446143a381717772fadf69fb1d6c9193b0e016
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,087
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,087 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 4,004$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.42 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Over | 56c | 2,671$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.24 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 55c | 1,069$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.32 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc480…e4a0backed Under | 46c | 634$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 46c | 520$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 39c | 433.64$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.12 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 56c | 261.82$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 1,290 | 44%567 W · 723 L | +35.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 44c | 150.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.14 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…8512backed Over | 60c | 98.33$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9105…1ae2backed Over | 61c | 78.89$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Over | 60c | 67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x254f…2fb8backed Over | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe74e…90b6backed Over | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9b…ae51backed Over | 60c | 56.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd83b…835bbacked Over | 61c | 54.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…87dabacked Over | 60c | 53.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.33 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…0f55backed Over | 61c | 52.82$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf69b…617fbacked Over | 61c | 52.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…38febacked Over | 60c | 51.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…7347backed Over | 60c | 51.67$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c8…a2aabacked Over | 61c | 51.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x570b…1263backed Over | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 55 | 50.9%28 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Trail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.