NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaeccd530501655ceda82e4881e6a2dcd198fe355c1eb39476681c88208c38d09
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Trail Blazersof Thunder, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,120
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,120 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5af6…5d07backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 4,871$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,630.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeff5…9b86backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 4,789$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,586.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 4,362$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050.14 | 382 | 48.7%186 W · 196 L | +13.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 4,135$2,150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.82 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…e859backed Thunder | 54c | 3,618$1,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,953.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 51cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…e0cfbacked Thunder | 54c | 2,916$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,574.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce0…c5b1backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 1,957$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.78 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0842…9d35backed Thunder | 54c | 1,873$1,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.42 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5c…8ae8backed Thunder | 48c | 1,625$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a21…e599backed Thunder | 54c | 1,253$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$676.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 47c | 1,252$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.83 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ea…5491backed Thunder | 54c | 1,250$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…b2a4backed Thunder | 54c | 1,169$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495c…f211backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 1,108$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.32 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc520…3249backed Thunder | 54c | 1,108$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.32 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…178bbacked Trail Blazers | 46c | 1,105$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d69…6a61backed Thunder | 54c | 1,105$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Thunder | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Thunder | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder | 46c | 801.01$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.46 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1188…2c2ebacked Thunder | 54c | 788$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…9fbcbacked Thunder | 55c | 721.48$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Thunder | 48c | 701.2$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.58 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b8…5f86backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 686$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 48cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 627.08$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Thunder | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 137 | 54%74 W · 63 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder | 48c | 543$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.64 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 509.09$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.27 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Thunder | 55c | 403.35$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.84 | 390 | 51.5%201 W · 189 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc4…4869backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 396$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked Trail Blazers | 55c | 363.73$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.73 | 175 | 40.6%71 W · 104 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 47c | 345$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.15 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 331.48$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.48 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Thunder | 47c | 292.53$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 417 | 42%175 W · 242 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Thunder | 49c | 283$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.85 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Trail Blazers | 45c | 274.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.24 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Thunder | 46c | 216.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 195.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Trail Blazers | 44c | 195$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.1 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5478backed Thunder | 56c | 190$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -60%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder | 47c | 174$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.78 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5de1…db81backed Trail Blazers | 46c | 168$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Thunder | 48c | 149.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…768ebacked Trail Blazers | 54c | 125.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 136 | 44.9%61 W · 75 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…ad57backed Thunder | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked Thunder | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Thunder | 55c | 96.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Thunder | 46c | 79.01$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2a…845bbacked Thunder | 49c | 72.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Thunder | 46c | 66.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 44.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 685 | 42.6%292 W · 393 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Thunder | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 35.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…f8bebacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 29.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -6.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed Thunder | 47c | 29.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Thunder | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)this page
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Trail Blazers won
- Spread: Thunder (-5.5)Trail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail BlazersTrail Blazers won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 227.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.