La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9db63bb6ee77c49bdf0357015b2f04b6f34d583bddf29a8eeed5200fab1f9a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,000
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,014
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,000 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 32c | 6,999$2,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.7 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 3,404$1,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,760.77 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed Yes | 32c | 3,016$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.93 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 68c | 2,650$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Yes | 32c | 2,280$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$729.7 | 157 | 50.3%79 W · 78 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Yes | 34c | 1,957$675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…026abacked No | 68c | 1,912$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 69c | 1,827$1,269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.59 | 307 | 43.6%134 W · 173 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…af99backed No | 68c | 1,765$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f7…f247backed No | 68c | 1,544$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf1…1d5dbacked Yes | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 75cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 1,102$804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.13 | 274 | 53.6%147 W · 127 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked No | 67c | 999.91$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.97 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Yes | 26c | 961.54$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked No | 77c | 870.97$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 79c | 802$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.64 | 140 | 67.1%94 W · 46 L | +17.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa8…9a51backed No | 68c | 695.59$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…a7ccbacked No | 12c | 500$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +313.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…ea84backed Yes | 33c | 469.7$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3222…2823backed Yes | 78c | 423.03$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.96 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 18c | 366.43$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.81 | 290 | 38.6%112 W · 178 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…63fcbacked No | 69c | 359.63$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.63 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 31c | 345.39$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.07 | 85 | 21.2%18 W · 67 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…44a2backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x268c…a03abacked No | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 289.6$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.6 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…c0f4backed Yes | 33c | 255.48$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.31 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 237 | 62.9%149 W · 88 L | +21.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x486e…62c7backed No | 30c | 164.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked No | 67c | 149.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…a8e1backed Yes | 34c | 147.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…8502backed Yes | 24c | 141.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed No | 24c | 130$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 266 | 41.4%110 W · 156 L | +15.2wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 33c | 121.21$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 265 | 45.3%120 W · 145 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 171 | 28.1%48 W · 123 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9e…40a5backed Yes | 70c | 78.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -4.5wins | -0.25per pick | 64cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 67c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x877e…d958backed No | 68c | 69.85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 62cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…409dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 70c | 56.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 171 | 55%94 W · 77 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 32c | 51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 532 | 42.3%225 W · 307 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 40c | 50.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd574…425dbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea4…f025backed No | 77c | 39.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6f…eb72backed No | 68c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 145 | 74.5%108 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb1…f87dbacked Yes | 33c | 32.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2727…a384backed Yes | 48c | 22.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…bf48backed No | 68c | 17.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…2134backed Yes | 80c | 16.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?this page
- Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-01?No won
- Will Real Sociedad win on 2025-11-01?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.