TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$339,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$309,165

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,173 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 434 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6910…1779backed Yes21c27,741$5,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,906.231216.7%2 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-60.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0049…3a9abacked Yes7c16,251$1,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,156.5880%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5358…5243backed Yes10c15,026$1,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,556.232740.7%11 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes6c8,335$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+46.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91ce…16ecbacked Yes47c7,882$3,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,692.33837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4181…de86backed No47c6,673$3,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,551.868815.9%14 W · 74 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick15cpaid-34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9869…b7d6backed Yes10c6,672$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.05333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-44.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942c…fb3abacked Yes63c6,042$3,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,80020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes45c6,000$2,703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,702.91127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-58.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98e8…ab20backed Yes41c5,481$2,258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,257.962821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-56.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a34…a5dcbacked Yes5c4,845$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.43520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes76c3,838$2,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,899.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc77…c035backed No69c3,814$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.164553.3%24 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes73c3,663$2,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,686.761136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-52%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc74…216cbacked Yes45c3,299$1,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.951040%4 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes51c3,245$1,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,654.751163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+87%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes50c3,232$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,600.4333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes1c2,872$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.482560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes75c2,610$1,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,964.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-46.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7af…bbf1backed Yes44c2,586$1,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,144.09140%0 W · 14 L-4.2wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes11c2,547$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.062254.5%12 W · 10 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick17cpaid+297.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x4093…52d3backed Yes23c2,518$583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$583.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes29c2,461$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.072317.4%4 W · 19 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+101.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes27c2,426$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.335320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8677…567cbacked Yes56c2,339$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1773…f4e3backed Yes52c2,024$1,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,047.131631.3%5 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-49.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No56c1,904$1,062 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$842.0857426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d7b…6e23backed Yes62c1,889$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No46c1,747$803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.974020%8 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-67.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x40c4…adbebacked Yes1c1,718$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb23…6c30backed Yes2c1,685$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b32…b7f8backed Yes2c1,656$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No39c1,545$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.9325122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73dc…8d32backed No52c1,482$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.084348.8%21 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x60f7…050bbacked Yes58c1,429$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.121163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-7.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e98…a8e6backed Yes57c1,325$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa234…3400backed Yes70c1,269$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes21c1,219$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.1620418.6%38 W · 166 L-8.3wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-33.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes2c1,183$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.187219.4%14 W · 58 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e2b…53a0backed Yes30c1,177$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-52.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe45e…d369backed Yes2c1,174$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58db…6901backed Yes20c1,124$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f6a…7771backed Yes77c1,112$857 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe577…6c42backed Yes66c1,073$712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711.95425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.38per pick63cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No15c1,026$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$872.4526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1281…8d51backed Yes47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47030%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Yes31c996.18$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.821010%1 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick21cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes74c995$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.151241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No46c990.49$452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.041741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick27cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x34ad…d41dbacked Yes53c927.71$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe929…759cbacked Yes54c922.37$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No38c904.73$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.536010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e12…1c24backed Yes66c892.48$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.29933.3%3 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc6f0…f19fbacked Yes69c875.03$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$603.78837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Yes73c871.61$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.093839.5%15 W · 23 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-36.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5427…bb86backed Yes14c850$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-7.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes60c845.55$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5101250%6 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes5c809.24$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Yes54c790.93$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.382360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x770e…a3f2backed Yes78c773.45$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9514…0dd6backed Yes67c754.17$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.64250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes67c747.48$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes3c730.14$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.417219.4%14 W · 58 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-63%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes59c718.58$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.924360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x932f…aeb6backed Yes50c712.59$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.17333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c695.91$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.571,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc616…c449backed Yes76c684.64$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.33540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd31c…9af2backed Yes73c683.76$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cd0…4516backed Yes59c672.15$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.041250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f7…2501backed Yes49c628.87$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.872646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce03…5608backed Yes52c620$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-60.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0518…5da2backed Yes69c600.84$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick61cpaid-38.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4371…2e31backed Yes68c557.19$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.1330%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7868…2f31backed Yes14c552.56$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x908f…5861backed Yes34c546.11$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7320…79e6backed Yes66c535.79$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.56633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-47.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4617…654bbacked Yes63c528.61$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb32…bbccbacked Yes78c512.58$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-71.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x822f…1f1abacked Yes45c510.36$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.7630%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x59c4…e06fbacked Yes39c509.34$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes55c503.85$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.12540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e82…ca87backed Yes56c500.27$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…1f97backed Yes67c500$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes2c500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-92.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…7b17backed Yes72c484.94$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb565…12adbacked Yes70c475.56$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes45c473.51$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-72.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd702…019cbacked Yes65c459.15$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes58c456.85$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.7947938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes50c435.53$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.564242.9%18 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf502…2088backed Yes78c425.77$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked Yes76c409.82$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.19520%1 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick48cpaid-73.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x41c6…6307backed No25c404.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+304.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83f8…e194backed Yes27c403.45$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Yes61c400$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.381330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5903…f218backed No40c399.97$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.822846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9d3…63d9backed Yes71c384.26$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6684…95d1backed Yes36c383$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.534228.6%12 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-47.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked No18c362.94$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.8721713.4%29 W · 188 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.