AI · resolved market
Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb3e508c21332268a70f98f10020c72e66ae951420fc64c28707111447cc7740d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $339,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $309,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $339,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 434 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6910…1779backed Yes | 21c | 27,741$5,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,906.23 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 7c | 16,251$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.58 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…5243backed Yes | 10c | 15,026$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.23 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…6732backed Yes | 6c | 8,335$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ce…16ecbacked Yes | 47c | 7,882$3,692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,692.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4181…de86backed No | 47c | 6,673$3,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,551.86 | 88 | 15.9%14 W · 74 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…b7d6backed Yes | 10c | 6,672$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Yes | 63c | 6,042$3,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,800 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 45c | 6,000$2,703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,702.9 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e8…ab20backed Yes | 41c | 5,481$2,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,257.96 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a34…a5dcbacked Yes | 5c | 4,845$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…fd14backed Yes | 76c | 3,838$2,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,899.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed No | 69c | 3,814$2,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.16 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…7ba1backed Yes | 73c | 3,663$2,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,686.76 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc74…216cbacked Yes | 45c | 3,299$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.95 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 51c | 3,245$1,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.75 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8f…97bcbacked Yes | 50c | 3,232$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,872$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc6…aad8backed Yes | 75c | 2,610$1,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,964.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…bbf1backed Yes | 44c | 2,586$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,144.09 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 11c | 2,547$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.06 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 17cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…52d3backed Yes | 23c | 2,518$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae5b…0a8cbacked Yes | 29c | 2,461$720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$720.07 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 27c | 2,426$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.33 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…567cbacked Yes | 56c | 2,339$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…f4e3backed Yes | 52c | 2,024$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 56c | 1,904$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.08 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d7b…6e23backed Yes | 62c | 1,889$1,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 46c | 1,747$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.97 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40c4…adbebacked Yes | 1c | 1,718$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…6c30backed Yes | 2c | 1,685$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b32…b7f8backed Yes | 2c | 1,656$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 39c | 1,545$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.93 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…8d32backed No | 52c | 1,482$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.08 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f7…050bbacked Yes | 58c | 1,429$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.12 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e98…a8e6backed Yes | 57c | 1,325$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa234…3400backed Yes | 70c | 1,269$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 21c | 1,219$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.16 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,183$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2b…53a0backed Yes | 30c | 1,177$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…d369backed Yes | 2c | 1,174$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed Yes | 20c | 1,124$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6a…7771backed Yes | 77c | 1,112$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 78cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe577…6c42backed Yes | 66c | 1,073$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 63cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 15c | 1,026$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$872.45 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…8d51backed Yes | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…e12bbacked Yes | 31c | 996.18$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…0df8backed Yes | 74c | 995$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 46c | 990.49$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34ad…d41dbacked Yes | 53c | 927.71$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…759cbacked Yes | 54c | 922.37$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 38c | 904.73$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.53 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e12…1c24backed Yes | 66c | 892.48$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f0…f19fbacked Yes | 69c | 875.03$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 73c | 871.61$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.09 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5427…bb86backed Yes | 14c | 850$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 60c | 845.55$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes | 5c | 809.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 54c | 790.93$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.38 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…a3f2backed Yes | 78c | 773.45$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9514…0dd6backed Yes | 67c | 754.17$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 67c | 747.48$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 3c | 730.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -63%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 59c | 718.58$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.92 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…aeb6backed Yes | 50c | 712.59$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 695.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc616…c449backed Yes | 76c | 684.64$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd31c…9af2backed Yes | 73c | 683.76$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…4516backed Yes | 59c | 672.15$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 49c | 628.87$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.87 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce03…5608backed Yes | 52c | 620$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed Yes | 69c | 600.84$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 61cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4371…2e31backed Yes | 68c | 557.19$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7868…2f31backed Yes | 14c | 552.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908f…5861backed Yes | 34c | 546.11$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…79e6backed Yes | 66c | 535.79$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.56 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4617…654bbacked Yes | 63c | 528.61$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb32…bbccbacked Yes | 78c | 512.58$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…1f1abacked Yes | 45c | 510.36$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x59c4…e06fbacked Yes | 39c | 509.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1eb…7afebacked Yes | 55c | 503.85$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e82…ca87backed Yes | 56c | 500.27$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…1f97backed Yes | 67c | 500$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…7b17backed Yes | 72c | 484.94$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb565…12adbacked Yes | 70c | 475.56$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 45c | 473.51$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…019cbacked Yes | 65c | 459.15$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 456.85$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.79 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff7…87a4backed Yes | 50c | 435.53$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.56 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf502…2088backed Yes | 78c | 425.77$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ef…468bbacked Yes | 76c | 409.82$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c6…6307backed No | 25c | 404.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +304.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83f8…e194backed Yes | 27c | 403.45$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 61c | 400$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.38 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 40c | 399.97$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.82 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…63d9backed Yes | 71c | 384.26$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 36c | 383$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.53 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -5.0wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…8a19backed Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 18c | 362.94$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.87 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft be the second most valuable company on October 31?this page
- Will Apple be the second most valuable company on October 31?Yes won
- Will Google be the second most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will NVIDIA be the second most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will Oracle be the second most valuable company on October 31?No won
- Will Other be the second most valuable company on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.