NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8dd7094a96db3ec86f59e5a669254405e204660db369b3a688ef825de061384
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,476
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf704…bed4backed Celtics | 60c | 2,666$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.49 | 169 | 43.8%74 W · 95 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 40c | 2,123$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Celtics | 59c | 1,896$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$781.35 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 41c | 1,751$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.91 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 40c | 1,230$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.81 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Celtics | 60c | 865$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Wizards | 45c | 517.78$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x942c…fb3abacked Celtics | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 40c | 463$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…2e61backed Wizards | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dd…490bbacked Celtics | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 126 | 54.8%69 W · 57 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Celtics | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Wizards | 45c | 152$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Celtics | 58c | 135.75$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Wizards | 42c | 27.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0825…0b5dbacked Celtics | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Wizards | 60c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)this page
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Celtics won
- Wizards vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.