NBA · resolved market
Spread: Celtics (-12.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f14a3725b069e816565827d8738f686a1cc6102e67660ed140c0168d72f6ca2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Celticsof Celtics, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $305,713
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $305,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,713 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Celtics | 52c | 230,879$120,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110,631.12 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 48c | 185,782$89,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89,856.02 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…fed6backed Celtics | 49c | 57,765$28,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,460.18 | 200 | 55%110 W · 90 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Wizards | 48c | 34,569$16,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,641.17 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Wizards | 51c | 20,000$10,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,200 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Wizards | 48c | 16,398$7,840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,840.41 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 49c | 12,669$6,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,175.57 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Wizards | 48c | 6,000$2,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,880 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Celtics | 51c | 4,355$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,133.71 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 51c | 4,113$2,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,077.61 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Wizards | 51c | 3,600$1,836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,836 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Wizards | 48c | 3,333$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599.84 | 297 | 48.1%143 W · 154 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Wizards | 47c | 2,397$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.36 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Celtics | 51c | 1,502$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.96 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wizards | 47c | 1,489$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$699.83 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 50c | 1,422$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.55 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Wizards | 47c | 1,125$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.53 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Wizards | 47c | 754.72$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.72 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…f7febacked Celtics | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Wizards | 48c | 400$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Celtics | 44c | 377.35$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.32 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Wizards | 47c | 344.81$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.06 | 121 | 60.3%73 W · 48 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Celtics | 46c | 311.14$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.01 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d6…36cbbacked Wizards | 53c | 273.58$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 245 | 33.9%83 W · 162 L | -19.1wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…ed90backed Wizards | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Wizards | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b3…f97cbacked Celtics | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Wizards | 50c | 174$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51d9…cb1abacked Wizards | 49c | 139.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 137 | 43.8%60 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…b0bbbacked Wizards | 48c | 120$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Wizards | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Wizards | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Wizards | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 106 | 54.7%58 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Celtics | 51c | 69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…3ca6backed Wizards | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ac…9725backed Wizards | 53c | 41.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4da1…f31fbacked Celtics | 49c | 41.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8dadbacked Wizards | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -6.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…28a7backed Wizards | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7486…1f27backed Wizards | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -4.2wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e1…61edbacked Wizards | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Celtics | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff66…b82bbacked Celtics | 49c | 22.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…9657backed Wizards | 53c | 22.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)this page
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
- Wizards vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.