NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeac0ba165e6a72bab05e65fe4c095e755beceb558c14f60605853280530dd929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 50c | 22,220$11,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,068.93 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb6…3009backed Under | 50c | 20,000$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 4,206$1,976 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,976.46 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 44c | 3,235$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.55 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Over | 51c | 2,870$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410.81 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 47c | 2,833$1,332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.51 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 1,107$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.01 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 56c | 1,065$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.6 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Over | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 45c | 778$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.1 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9844…5e6cbacked Over | 56c | 620$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.8 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 47c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Under | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae58…3f01backed Under | 48c | 66.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | -6.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa501…0511backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5this page
- Spread: Celtics (-10.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
- Spread: Celtics (-12.5)Celtics won
- Wizards vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5Over won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.