TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,184,220
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,411,076

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,184,220 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,454 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6211…b89ebacked Hawks46c532,878$245,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245,124.038148.1%39 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Hawks46c331,651$152,559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,559.3772648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Knicks65c230,058$150,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79,749.2913642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Knicks55c196,592$108,637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,954.7864948.2%313 W · 336 L-3.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Knicks53c175,590$93,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82,538.561,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf472…a262backed Hawks3c168,946$5,283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,282.991417.8%11 W · 130 L-7.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid-46.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Knicks57c160,893$91,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69,261.3685742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Knicks54c159,342$86,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73,297.0910949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Hawks46c150,000$69,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,999.916841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks46c99,999$46,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45,999.654,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Hawks23c94,004$21,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,536.9169848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Hawks30c91,773$27,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,605.0566248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Knicks54c90,037$48,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,417.0436549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hawks31c86,151$26,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,393.661,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked Hawks47c61,800$29,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,0465036%18 W · 32 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-23.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Knicks64c58,831$37,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,228.734456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Hawks3c52,180$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.393179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Knicks54c48,918$26,416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,502.177650%38 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Hawks35c41,750$14,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,7001,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Hawks1c37,254$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.1727917.9%50 W · 229 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Hawks46c36,817$16,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,935.720454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Hawks1c35,691$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.815213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Hawks28c34,883$9,679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,679.2842645.5%194 W · 232 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cde…b97dbacked Knicks54c29,172$15,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,419.1212251.6%63 W · 59 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Hawks6c28,638$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.941,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc33a…3da3backed Hawks31c27,868$8,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,644.079741.2%40 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Hawks0c27,775$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.666028.3%17 W · 43 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Knicks54c26,773$14,457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,315.614,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Hawks6c26,082$1,536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,535.721,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0159…db47backed Hawks1c21,881$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.55614.9%3 W · 58 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-76.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Hawks34c20,468$6,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,986.81,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb70e…cde2backed Knicks54c20,410$11,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,388.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4900…4a72backed Knicks64c20,158$12,901 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,256.75940.7%24 W · 35 L-12.5wins-0.21per pick62cpaid-41.1%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Hawks13c20,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,60049244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Hawks46c20,000$9,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,20014842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Hawks0c20,000$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710718.7%20 W · 87 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6368…6dc8backed Knicks54c19,756$10,668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,087.6110352.4%54 W · 49 L-7.7wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-11.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52f5…5e8abacked Knicks57c19,486$11,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,339.993770.3%26 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…7404backed Knicks77c19,251$14,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,427.639100%9 W · 0 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+46.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf070…ac55backed Knicks54c18,367$9,918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,448.685848.3%28 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Knicks54c18,310$9,887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,422.5717356.1%97 W · 76 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Knicks55c17,677$9,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,954.548035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Hawks24c14,643$3,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,467.6336023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hawks27c14,113$3,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,759.172,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Hawks47c13,732$6,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,454.031,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked Knicks62c13,368$8,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,090.5220352.7%107 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x685d…22d6backed Knicks54c13,222$7,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,082.2630157.1%172 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Knicks54c12,878$6,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,923.9724841.1%102 W · 146 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Knicks54c12,866$6,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,918.4971654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Knicks54c12,680$6,847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,832.7938143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Hawks23c11,746$2,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,724.6919937.2%74 W · 125 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b4…b8a9backed Knicks58c11,364$6,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,718.526459.4%38 W · 26 L+5.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+11%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d13…643cbacked Hawks33c11,350$3,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,71814338.5%55 W · 88 L-18.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5aab…c4ddbacked Knicks78c11,265$8,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,472.687839.7%31 W · 47 L-6.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Hawks46c10,770$4,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,954.198750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Hawks46c10,519$4,839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,838.932748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Hawks32c9,807$3,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,162.6162144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5038…6236backed Knicks78c9,742$7,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,101.772458.3%14 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1d…0c53backed Knicks54c9,724$5,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,473.0411447.4%54 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x979f…4032backed Knicks54c9,724$5,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,473.042050%10 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+21.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fd…89debacked Knicks54c9,724$5,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,473.042941.4%12 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Hawks1c9,625$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.8167911%75 W · 604 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x535c…20fdbacked Hawks0c9,421$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.081662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7aa1…e126backed Knicks54c9,358$5,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,304.811369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd7e8…4f4bbacked Knicks56c9,228$5,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,099.273333.3%11 W · 22 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-5.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Knicks54c9,004$4,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,141.77640.8%31 W · 45 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Hawks28c8,952$2,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,464.39851%50 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Hawks35c8,623$3,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,007.0689444.4%397 W · 497 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b5…b7b3backed Knicks54c8,613$4,651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,961.953764.9%24 W · 13 L+7.1wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+58.9%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x7dce…c58ebacked Knicks54c8,498$4,589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,908.99850%4 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Hawks27c8,121$2,201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,201.1655251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hawks30c7,900$2,345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,345.2476850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hawks47c7,746$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,640.431,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Knicks54c7,676$4,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,506.6110645.3%48 W · 58 L-8.1wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-17.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Hawks6c7,550$477 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.3717326.6%46 W · 127 L+0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid-13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Knicks74c7,544$5,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,961.0625226.6%67 W · 185 L-26.7wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Knicks54c7,203$3,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,313.3641954.4%228 W · 191 L+1.9wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0075…5f10backed Knicks73c7,000$5,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8801758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+59.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Hawks0c6,650$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.65502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ec…e8f1backed Hawks47c6,313$2,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,966.9624831.9%79 W · 169 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41bb…26e8backed Knicks54c6,038$3,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.431866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+22.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbedd…7605backed Hawks13c5,893$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.1810630.2%32 W · 74 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x99bc…64bbbacked Knicks57c5,882$3,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,529.15955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Knicks65c5,777$3,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,028.7889850.9%457 W · 441 L+19.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e47…a9a9backed Knicks54c5,725$3,092 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,633.5934852.3%182 W · 166 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Knicks74c5,653$4,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.333,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd3de…d680backed Hawks0c5,577$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.870%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Hawks30c5,489$1,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.6524937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Knicks54c5,402$2,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,485.0269049.4%341 W · 349 L-30.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Knicks54c5,348$2,888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.171,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Hawks13c5,300$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.697115.5%11 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Hawks0c5,185$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.828783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Hawks47c5,150$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,420.57243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Hawks36c5,085$1,813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.3632846.6%153 W · 175 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc74f…a9cebacked Hawks20c5,023$1,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,001.69540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Hawks13c5,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4b…fbcdbacked Knicks50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5003100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+64.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f50…3191backed Knicks56c5,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,2007865.4%51 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Hawks43c4,986$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.617553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6195…b9e3backed Knicks54c4,947$2,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,275.448558.8%50 W · 35 L-0.1wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.