TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$801,919
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$811,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $801,919 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 349 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed Hawks52c216,647$113,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113,264.1969848.6%339 W · 359 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Hawks53c99,476$52,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,722.3360351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Hawks53c91,688$48,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,677.9817251.7%89 W · 83 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Knicks48c90,540$43,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,642.4743148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa945…110fbacked Hawks0c59,027$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.0360%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Knicks47c58,441$27,259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,181.5766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba38…e406backed Hawks53c45,682$24,211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,211.211457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa080…234fbacked Hawks53c39,708$20,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,848.0414842.6%63 W · 85 L-7.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x040e…582fbacked Knicks47c38,728$18,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,525.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Knicks46c37,486$17,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,105.9910949.5%54 W · 55 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b4d…e246backed Knicks47c26,206$12,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,889.0829650.3%149 W · 147 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x639c…31e2backed Knicks48c24,212$11,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,586.453540%14 W · 21 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e8a…2d30backed Knicks47c20,600$9,682 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,918850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Knicks48c16,550$7,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,606.1721943.4%95 W · 124 L-12.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8d5d…191dbacked Knicks48c15,237$7,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,923.055442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe169…4653backed Knicks47c13,981$6,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,409.9512450.8%63 W · 61 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162b…3d49backed Knicks47c13,564$6,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,188.915947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Knicks47c12,272$5,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,511.124,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Hawks53c12,000$6,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,359.9917055.3%94 W · 76 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Hawks53c11,732$6,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,256.691,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Knicks48c11,291$5,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,911.4163746.6%297 W · 340 L-16.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Knicks47c11,169$5,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,919.7415141.1%62 W · 89 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Hawks52c10,163$5,285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,284.975154.9%28 W · 23 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed Hawks53c9,745$5,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,164.7911654.3%63 W · 53 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Knicks56c9,483$5,326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,156.433,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf09a…a371backed Knicks47c8,829$4,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,679.451457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb27…c56ebacked Hawks52c8,716$4,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,532.2587144.7%389 W · 482 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7829…cfd3backed Knicks47c8,405$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,454.622842.9%12 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8228…b2fbbacked Knicks48c8,297$3,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,314.634951%25 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Knicks52c7,464$3,851 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,613.0555251.3%283 W · 269 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Hawks53c7,222$3,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,827.6558449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks46c7,059$3,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,810.846,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a66…ae5ebacked Knicks48c6,640$3,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,452.9614251.4%73 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x802b…7d57backed Knicks47c6,592$3,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,493.761154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a54…7191backed Knicks47c6,147$2,889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,257.965345.3%24 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2114…84c5backed Knicks47c5,974$2,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,166.225935.6%21 W · 38 L-8.3wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-28.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4370…61aebacked Knicks47c5,887$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,120.36633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x189a…4765backed Knicks47c5,861$2,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,106.17650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe49d…ff91backed Knicks48c5,743$2,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,986.115655.4%31 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa084…bb99backed Knicks48c5,634$2,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929.792445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4244…03a6backed Knicks48c5,450$2,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,833.7418349.2%90 W · 93 L-0.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc95b…f819backed Knicks48c4,985$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,592.352638.5%10 W · 16 L-3.1wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Knicks48c4,921$2,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,558.7937627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Knicks48c4,642$2,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,413.9334854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf57e…bbd6backed Hawks54c4,497$2,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,431.110553.3%56 W · 49 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Knicks46c4,300$1,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,300.651,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Knicks46c4,255$1,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,285.682,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Knicks46c4,182$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,246.8947856.7%271 W · 207 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fca…9d33backed Knicks48c4,133$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.236541.5%27 W · 38 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e01…0875backed Knicks47c4,120$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,183.63943.6%17 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d2b…97fdbacked Knicks48c4,111$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.476543.1%28 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Hawks53c4,082$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.2312056.7%68 W · 52 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Knicks75c4,071$3,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.158,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61e8…b283backed Knicks47c3,955$1,852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,103.7514940.9%61 W · 88 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Hawks20c3,945$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.5720744%91 W · 116 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Hawks53c3,887$2,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,060.2279549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Knicks47c3,708$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.4617047.6%81 W · 89 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Knicks58c3,693$2,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,563.592,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa38a…821dbacked Hawks48c3,682$1,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,768.3493148.4%451 W · 480 L+34.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecc3…ff02backed Knicks47c3,578$1,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,906.71837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Hawks54c3,484$1,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,881.5790650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe21e…f216backed Knicks72c3,375$2,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.3812058.3%70 W · 50 L+11.9wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf20f…3b33backed Knicks47c3,350$1,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,775.2718343.7%80 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c85…94a4backed Knicks48c3,121$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.173345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Knicks48c3,028$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.32,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb097…0e61backed Knicks48c3,027$1,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,574.2912240.2%49 W · 73 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Knicks47c2,937$1,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.534,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ab2…8fdabacked Knicks47c2,787$1,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,478.7219745.2%89 W · 108 L-7.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c7…2e93backed Hawks53c2,750$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,457.721152.6%111 W · 100 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea48…c596backed Knicks48c2,750$1,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.2218444.6%82 W · 102 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1b…7768backed Hawks53c2,686$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.3127645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36f2…dab4backed Knicks47c2,680$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.437951.9%41 W · 38 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Hawks53c2,671$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,415.874465.9%29 W · 15 L+4.8wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+25%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Hawks54c2,648$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.1632351.1%165 W · 158 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x708a…a0d8backed Knicks47c2,590$1,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,372.694535.6%16 W · 29 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-27.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Hawks52c2,500$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Knicks47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32556843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Hawks24c2,453$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.812,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93a7…b221backed Knicks48c2,292$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,191.951957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28ce…979fbacked Knicks47c2,266$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.98862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1065…6218backed Knicks47c2,250$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.512352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa136…ea3cbacked Knicks47c2,060$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.83941%16 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe802…e465backed Hawks55c2,052$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.635945.8%27 W · 32 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Knicks48c2,015$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,055.121,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Hawks52c2,000$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04089853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6975…11c1backed Hawks20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf83b…44a2backed Hawks43c1,954$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.1315246.7%71 W · 81 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b78…9992backed Knicks46c1,877$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,013.5220051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3673…2d13backed Knicks48c1,798$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.017143.7%31 W · 40 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed Hawks49c1,793$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.6417553.7%94 W · 81 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Knicks47c1,689$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$895.1730446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Hawks52c1,672$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.781,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Hawks53c1,652$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.5964651.7%334 W · 312 L-14.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Knicks48c1,615$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$839.6316249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac1a…813ebacked Knicks46c1,489$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.2717250.6%87 W · 85 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Hawks51c1,420$724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$724.2258740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23ef…1d4cbacked Hawks53c1,400$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7425337.7%20 W · 33 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-29%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Knicks46c1,370$632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.345,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Knicks46c1,350$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7293948.7%19 W · 20 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Knicks47c1,337$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.5826648.5%129 W · 137 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.