F1 · resolved market
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75a5dcd03cd57999053d983f04415fd08b160aa31a3b60e791a2df1ecdf42007
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,245
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,245 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x856d…770abacked Yes | 10c | 5,998$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 10c | 5,021$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.6 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…1475backed Yes | 7c | 1,464$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…3e26backed Yes | 8c | 1,118$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.58 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb758…dd73backed Yes | 5c | 1,001$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…2f6bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…e4dabacked Yes | 3c | 861.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Yes | 3c | 810$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd36…e7d5backed Yes | 6c | 782.96$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 7c | 699.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 7c | 677.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 3c | 600$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c3…8cd8backed Yes | 7c | 549.88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…b440backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 124 | 19.4%24 W · 100 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 7c | 499.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 6c | 460.36$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 4c | 450$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x672e…36ccbacked Yes | 9c | 394.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…0b04backed Yes | 7c | 382.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf0…aaaebacked Yes | 9c | 366.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 8c | 341.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…4f5cbacked Yes | 6c | 339.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa470…5283backed Yes | 6c | 312.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 7c | 302.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7566…ae05backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 6c | 299.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 9c | 258.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3a…9c1ebacked Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56cf…0aeabacked Yes | 9c | 187$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.