F1 · resolved market
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a1eeb981075fa48acd539263d947c6ef586ee3d911a0e7624def290b2b2a970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- F1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $104,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $104,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in F1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5452…d448backed Yes | 3c | 9,934$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.31 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…7c31backed Yes | 5c | 5,270$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…d542backed Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x25e3…9f8cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,443$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.55 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,386$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…b673backed Yes | 1c | 2,538$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…9419backed Yes | 3c | 2,500$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,488$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.86 | 376 | 6.9%26 W · 350 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafd2…9693backed Yes | 2c | 2,200$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1824…fda1backed Yes | 4c | 1,708$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.49 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…6b77backed Yes | 5c | 1,700$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes | 5c | 1,399$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.73 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168a…da29backed Yes | 5c | 1,354$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.71 | 144 | 58.3%84 W · 60 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…c139backed Yes | 3c | 1,352$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…2763backed Yes | 10c | 1,276$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a8…b1f7backed Yes | 3c | 1,038$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…378dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,009$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe66e…946bbacked Yes | 5c | 899.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 5c | 856.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 2c | 790.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 81 | 27.2%22 W · 59 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…3e61backed Yes | 3c | 741.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf0…aaaebacked Yes | 4c | 719.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…de8dbacked Yes | 7c | 714.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c4…0c89backed Yes | 4c | 712.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c85…d15dbacked Yes | 3c | 703.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 5c | 665.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 14%8 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 3c | 600.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad0…0f35backed Yes | 3c | 586.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7566…ae05backed Yes | 6c | 526.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa470…5283backed Yes | 3c | 472.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41dc…6bbebacked Yes | 5c | 412.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb943…375bbacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0679…bebbbacked Yes | 5c | 310.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e76…d740backed Yes | 6c | 307.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 300.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…62a4backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2a…4af4backed Yes | 5c | 228.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 5c | 221.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?this page
- Will Arvid Lindblad win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?Yes won
- Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
- Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.