TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Penguins vs. Blues

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bluesof Penguins, Blues
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,609,747
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,594,295

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,609,747 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 703 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Penguins36c509,382$183,203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183,203.1122443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Blues62c217,431$133,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83,557.5267051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Blues56c156,124$88,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68,034.5811644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Blues64c83,500$53,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,06026849.6%133 W · 135 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Blues65c58,315$37,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,589.9648549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed Penguins43c55,762$23,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,977.668952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Penguins41c49,602$20,384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,383.7961950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Blues64c40,635$25,972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,662.832,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Blues57c36,399$20,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,741.8541850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc29a…7816backed Penguins34c35,055$11,919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,918.618240.2%33 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Blues35c32,090$11,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,940.41,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Blues65c31,573$20,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,163.6440356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Blues63c30,242$18,965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,276.611,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf8a…433dbacked Penguins39c25,389$9,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,892.72683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+71.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Blues63c21,006$13,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,701.951,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Blues56c20,000$11,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,703.988657%49 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed Penguins43c19,560$8,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,410.91735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.15per pick50cpaid-36.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Penguins37c19,291$7,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,042.7712047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Blues60c19,100$11,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,578.4433234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Penguins35c18,070$6,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,324.33944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d1…8ecabacked Penguins43c17,046$7,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,325.76742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Penguins40c15,404$6,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,233.0451550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Blues53c14,823$7,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,984.51,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x613b…823abacked Blues65c14,700$9,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,1453354.5%18 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x559b…4959backed Blues66c14,545$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,945.451384.6%11 W · 2 L+3.8wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+56.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfc92…2e78backed Penguins40c14,309$5,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,665.213151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e2f…ec47backed Blues65c12,584$8,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,404.44546.7%21 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Penguins45c12,500$5,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6254450%22 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Penguins53c11,958$6,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,280.3618452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Penguins41c11,569$4,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,750.582,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Blues22c10,477$2,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,206.3785464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Penguins72c9,851$7,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,092.5275251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Penguins35c9,760$3,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,371.618641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2bf…0b30backed Penguins43c9,586$4,122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,121.861353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+9.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Penguins48c9,424$4,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,510.811,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Penguins59c9,163$5,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,443.0640351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Blues57c9,094$5,228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,866.692,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Blues39c8,283$3,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,045.8412654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Penguins40c7,789$3,127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,126.7220756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Penguins44c7,500$3,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,27043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf715…2c2abacked Blues61c6,776$4,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,614.334247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Blues66c6,605$4,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,248.193056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Penguins42c5,905$2,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,480.2318853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Blues47c5,724$2,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,058.330259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Penguins44c5,500$2,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4059751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Blues31c5,376$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,715.217258.3%42 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+31.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xea79…a9ccbacked Penguins72c5,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,6005756.1%32 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Penguins38c5,000$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,90015749.7%78 W · 79 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Penguins44c5,000$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19527850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Penguins44c5,000$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,19560249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Blues57c5,000$2,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.999935.4%35 W · 64 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-36.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Penguins39c4,959$1,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.0113850.7%70 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Blues65c4,677$3,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,636.956940.6%28 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Penguins34c4,599$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,573.510146.5%47 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Penguins51c4,518$2,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,326.5337754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Penguins40c4,442$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,790.163647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed Penguins40c4,321$1,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,731.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Blues64c4,153$2,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.0817247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x394e…450fbacked Blues29c4,082$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,898.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc03f…249dbacked Penguins43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7202441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Penguins52c3,956$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,070.9919759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Penguins40c3,864$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,545.62133.3%7 W · 14 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9348…8cfbbacked Penguins45c3,826$1,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,721.7411557.4%66 W · 49 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Penguins35c3,737$1,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,324.441842.8%179 W · 239 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Blues38c3,517$1,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,164.4615448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Blues48c3,345$1,602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,743.42,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Blues65c3,340$2,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.027358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Blues66c3,333$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.2231550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Penguins34c3,333$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,133.222948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Blues65c3,314$2,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1721947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Blues62c3,220$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.9133554%181 W · 154 L+13.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2248…bc0ebacked Penguins78c3,207$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50020%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Penguins48c3,177$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.853852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Blues64c3,125$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1252748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Blues59c3,031$1,791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.710066%66 W · 34 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked Blues66c3,030$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.32979.3%23 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Blues56c3,000$1,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32027243.4%118 W · 154 L-16.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85e5…9343backed Penguins37c3,000$1,110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1102050%10 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7771…009fbacked Blues57c3,000$1,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,300742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-20.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Penguins21c2,895$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60022043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Penguins55c2,876$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.613850.7%70 W · 68 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef23…5b60backed Penguins34c2,867$975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$974.7264242.2%271 W · 371 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…f61ebacked Blues56c2,821$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.07450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc661…610abacked Blues60c2,804$1,669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.521163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Blues62c2,738$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,046.3476950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a91…0776backed Penguins43c2,734$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,175.491030%3 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick50cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x039c…b202backed Penguins35c2,730$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.494738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Penguins39c2,726$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.069038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Penguins40c2,616$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.817448.6%36 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Penguins26c2,600$668 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.38860.2%53 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Penguins56c2,594$1,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.1411047.3%52 W · 58 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7630…5275backed Penguins43c2,527$1,087 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,086.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Blues28c2,487$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,790.595959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Penguins35c2,486$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8705230.8%16 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Blues51c2,346$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.64942.9%21 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2586…c893backed Penguins45c2,300$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,03583652.8%441 W · 395 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa32…bd9abacked Blues43c2,300$984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.943043.3%13 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Blues29c2,253$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.3426154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7736…6d7bbacked Penguins34c2,222$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.43520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Penguins40c2,116$841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840.7345751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.