NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xafcd3a339594ff099ecd22100af2e3c096719e8d3e6b14f11de235313a907d1b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,122
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,736
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,122 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2586…c893backed Over | 49c | 2,260$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152.6 | 836 | 52.8%441 W · 395 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 1,577$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.71 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc953…01bfbacked Under | 51c | 1,100$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Under | 51c | 1,010$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.1 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 841.77$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.57 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…a7fabacked Under | 51c | 712.75$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.5 | 255 | 55.3%141 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 29c | 624$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.22 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a93…c3eabacked Over | 49c | 610.87$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.87 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f97…4059backed Under | 52c | 314.58$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 33c | 259.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 49c | 250$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 237.02$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.14 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 52c | 200.88$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02d6…7ccdbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…a6cabacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc451…6bacbacked Under | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8d…e9b2backed Under | 51c | 194.18$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 51c | 144.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.92 | 190 | 33.7%64 W · 126 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Under | 41c | 77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -12.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Under | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 191 | 41.9%80 W · 111 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 67.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 67c | 67.08$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.34 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Over | 49c | 65$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.15 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fd…b476backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked Over | 50c | 45.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 67c | 42.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e4…f624backed Over | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 279 | 57.7%161 W · 118 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Over | 64c | 35.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 249 | 46.2%115 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 51c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5f…2f5ebacked Under | 61c | 29.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5b…efbebacked Under | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 121 | 50.4%61 W · 60 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc459…ac19backed Over | 49c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 46c | 23.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Over | 47c | 21.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 62c | 18.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 6.5this page
- Penguins vs. BluesBlues won
- Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Blues (-1.5)Blues won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.