NHL · resolved market
Spread: Penguins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b98d11c71fc1b391f3131a31a5eb0f8a1918fd843cb5a9e24192dd14f206774
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bluesof Penguins, Blues
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,604
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,658
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,604 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Blues | 72c | 1,078$776 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.72 | 1,024 | 48.4%496 W · 528 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Penguins | 28c | 621$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.88 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Penguins | 22c | 573.32$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.55 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Penguins | 28c | 470$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.6 | 102 | 40.2%41 W · 61 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Blues | 76c | 254.6$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Blues | 79c | 124.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.08 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Blues | 50c | 101.88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Penguins | 20c | 97.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Penguins | 28c | 63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Penguins | 39c | 58.36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 58 | 70.7%41 W · 17 L | +8.6wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Blues | 80c | 52.5$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Blues | 75c | 49.35$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.14 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Blues | 52c | 36.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Blues | 73c | 22.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Blues | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8090…11eebacked Blues | 75c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf82b…ce40backed Blues | 75c | 14.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8181…e973backed Blues | 74c | 14.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d10…6248backed Blues | 74c | 13.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. BluesBlues won
- Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Blues: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Blues (-1.5)Blues won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.