TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-05-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$376,456
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$373,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $376,456 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 333 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4761…5ae8backed No24c57,379$13,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,607.97250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Yes76c50,000$38,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,0001040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No25c38,165$9,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,681.84740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes62c21,937$13,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,509.7628345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes69c21,124$14,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,575.3716045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No29c20,477$5,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,629.081,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Yes75c18,300$13,725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,7257443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes69c13,910$9,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,614.9510641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes40c12,586$5,002 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,001.982,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3328…e6b8backed No37c12,496$4,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,890.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+171.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Yes77c9,914$7,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,634.126761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No25c9,550$2,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,175.726755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes77c6,457$4,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,971.869851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4939…9adebacked No23c6,443$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,961.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+59.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed No31c6,250$1,938 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,312.59646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No34c5,668$1,930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,738.033,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes76c5,264$4,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.6438748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No24c5,096$1,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,861.0843532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec8…762abacked Yes63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,15040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed No23c4,474$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,444.911435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Yes26c4,183$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.829052.2%47 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed No23c4,005$921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,083.855952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Yes77c4,000$3,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,079.992857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f42…a8febacked Yes74c3,333$2,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,459.75862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8165…59d0backed Yes56c3,186$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,800742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-29.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No60c2,815$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.384264.3%27 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x689c…6b1ebacked No35c2,769$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,800.41060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No29c2,749$795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.157255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked Yes47c2,653$1,237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.995653.6%30 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed No25c2,500$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,874.9615747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f0c…ba73backed Yes63c2,410$1,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,507.17825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea7…0607backed Yes77c2,300$1,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,770.971127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-61.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked No28c2,086$591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.269150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8105…3287backed Yes78c2,018$1,574 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5741442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x38f1…9ff1backed Yes71c2,000$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4204965.3%32 W · 17 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf88f…c334backed Yes77c2,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,54050%0 W · 5 L-3.2wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x276b…8a8bbacked Yes75c1,964$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked No55c1,888$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.674337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes15c1,874$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2848932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked No73c1,722$1,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.754257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…e900backed Yes76c1,661$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,262.32922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-59.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b3f…5a9fbacked Yes76c1,586$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6afc…f7ddbacked Yes73c1,561$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.87250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes72c1,505$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.2255058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6190…5d90backed Yes79c1,501$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,180955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Yes77c1,500$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,154.969854.1%53 W · 45 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No24c1,320$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.3828755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes76c1,199$912 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$912.4814447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes77c1,162$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.057538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Yes65c1,097$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.5926445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked No62c1,089$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes32c1,079$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341.242540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2003…af6fbacked Yes69c1,000$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.19per pick41cpaid-69.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes50c917.89$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.4848141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32e5…8b41backed No23c869.57$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$669.57520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No22c843.47$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.912759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.5wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked No74c822.83$612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.489354.8%51 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1be…d6a2backed Yes76c798.92$610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6101776.5%13 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick68cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed Yes2c750$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No21c735.67$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.463259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No71c708.42$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.37750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes44c651.57$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.7364043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x564f…d93bbacked Yes80c625$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f9…0eaabacked Yes23c605.26$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.211811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-64%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked Yes55c600$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.835356.6%30 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x37ef…56f2backed Yes77c600$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4621533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick56cpaid-41.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x780f…5f16backed Yes51c588.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb881…20a1backed Yes75c533.33$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4005160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+20.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb775…36f5backed Yes75c506.67$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380837.5%3 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.25per pick63cpaid-44.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3089…92f6backed Yes16c504.5$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.72425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+257.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9351…ef0fbacked Yes63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No21c468.45$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.995729.8%17 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba8…833abacked Yes77c463.25$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7c2…73bfbacked Yes65c461.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003268.8%22 W · 10 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick56cpaid+25.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x31f3…0eacbacked Yes71c455.83$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.31771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ca…117abacked Yes44c455.73$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005349.1%26 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes75c441.45$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.4742046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c6c…998fbacked Yes75c441.32$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23e4…e501backed No24c416.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.67425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed No51c415.86$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.594153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Yes75c403.99$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.991662.5%10 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1871…59e6backed Yes70c400$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010251%52 W · 50 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x923c…6d03backed Yes29c400$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1175131.4%16 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes63c396.97$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4240744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No24c394.72$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.5529855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed No41c391.76$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.156232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Yes77c389.61$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30013066.9%87 W · 43 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe831…a42abacked Yes75c370$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.51145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Yes76c360$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.416343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed No22c332.75$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.5411354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes77c332.59$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.3748146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No23c332.41$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.961,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes77c332.29$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.4663645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7ee…fe5dbacked Yes78c320.51$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501560%9 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed No54c316.86$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7619458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1950…1bf4backed Yes75c311.27$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.451861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2965…e965backed Yes65c307.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47d1…7618backed Yes75c306.67$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick72cpaid+14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba97…716bbacked No24c291.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.672326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c82…14debacked Yes77c290.39$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.