TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. Hamburger SV end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$76,281
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,046

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,281 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked No31c12,576$3,896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,896.142,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No38c4,025$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,523.421,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b5…a2a7backed Yes51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.571353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.15per pick38cpaid+53.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes77c3,756$2,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.7333737.4%126 W · 211 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed No33c2,944$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.829052.2%47 W · 43 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+59.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No68c2,874$1,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,940.253,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes60c2,758$1,647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.642540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes77c2,377$1,837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.584264.3%27 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb416…4588backed Yes61c2,127$1,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No43c2,058$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$891.361,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes47c2,052$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,095.428345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes15c1,543$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,315.327538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x196b…4151backed No1c1,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15160%0 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Yes14c1,393$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,197.863834.2%13 W · 25 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No47c1,234$581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580.7840744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes70c1,216$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.664257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10472.1%1 W · 46 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed No37c902.48$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.864043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e3…3fe8backed Yes14c890$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.42240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4791…02b4backed Yes14c821.43$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.43425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b57…95e1backed Yes61c819.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Yes74c772.41$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.529354.8%51 W · 42 L+0.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18d7…2968backed Yes14c714.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.29650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+125.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes57c555.83$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.931656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No13c533$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5522245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed No16c532.68$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.3218554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbddd…3d9abacked Yes68c499.99$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1602475%18 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+24.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Yes79c427.98$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.115756.1%32 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6479…5e64backed Yes49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.163762.2%23 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes52c383.88$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.314153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7511…582ebacked Yes59c367.45$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.214055%77 W · 63 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a30…34b1backed Yes54c362.82$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.12862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick69cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9da0…523cbacked Yes58c348.34$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfde3…67b6backed No3c344.03$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes61c326.76$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.76366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9079…b19bbacked No34c321.91$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.455653.6%30 W · 26 L-0.2wins0.00per pick54cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No38c318.02$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.8514315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes70c300$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.919458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes21c298.11$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.5148141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9950…1432backed Yes25c280$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No78c257.77$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.943046.7%14 W · 16 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+37%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes14c246.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.9943532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes50c234.38$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.38580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick31cpaid+265.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc6a6…fec7backed No39c229.66$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.941947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8c…79bdbacked Yes14c214.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.292853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick57cpaid+6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes24c204.14$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.3538845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2843…0ac5backed Yes25c200$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+19.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No78c200$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+48.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes69c200$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Yes59c199.93$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.337455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf21b…0167backed Yes45c199.52$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.984100%4 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+480.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes14c194.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.569150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe286…7735backed Yes60c166.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.673100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Yes76c164.91$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.58757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+90.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No21c162$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.487136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No54c156.43$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.2539857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e80…c709backed No26c153.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09f1…8332backed Yes55c149.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes70c144.29$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.294030%12 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x453c…ae42backed Yes70c143$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+41%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed Yes13c139.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.5511354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…fdc0backed No16c134.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.263627.8%10 W · 26 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7e3…6761backed Yes61c130.65$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.655100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5bf…f0ccbacked Yes52c130$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.46665.2%43 W · 23 L+12.5wins+0.19per pick46cpaid+49.8%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x089c…4dc4backed No33c129.05$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.236640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No32c128.13$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Yes64c126.17$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.3520645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2965…e965backed Yes25c120$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Yes48c114$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.282347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b67…829fbacked No55c113.57$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.086937.7%26 W · 43 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Yes63c111.11$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Yes66c108.18$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.3714755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2fab…9db1backed Yes14c107.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.141711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed No26c106.38$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.566232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Yes20c105.3$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.345429.6%16 W · 38 L-6.9wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-18.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x03ed…8f34backed Yes29c102.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…24f0backed Yes69c101.45$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.45850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes22c100$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7828241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ba1…9ebbbacked Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Yes14c100$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe290…7fb0backed Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid+8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8887…4bdebacked Yes20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+106.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed No50c98.46$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4739558.7%232 W · 163 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0bc4…0fd1backed Yes25c91.2$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x976a…e8ecbacked No39c83.63$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.796850%34 W · 34 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes25c82.86$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.213158.1%18 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+6.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1440…8cf8backed No27c75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.25540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…eadfbacked Yes27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.07683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.46per pick38cpaid+117.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b6b…3962backed Yes14c73.43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No42c69.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2126445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0a…c19ebacked Yes63c63.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed No47c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282070%14 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.13per pick57cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed No32c57.92$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.332740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65af…df77backed Yes69c57.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.561735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick57cpaid-49.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed No31c55$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.05387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0182…301cbacked Yes56c52.05$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.05475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8dd…21a8backed Yes50c51.88$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.942100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed No49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254829.2%14 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.10per pick39cpaid-33.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked No40c50.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.276046.7%28 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x25bf…1184backed Yes64c50.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.