TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$112,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,663

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,269 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb5a4…5780backed Yes10c10,000$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.11666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes10c8,600$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.977538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes7c7,533$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.62,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes13c5,067$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.5943532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes37c3,173$1,170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.782540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes53c2,632$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.4922669%156 W · 70 L+13.1wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+25.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66ec…8c18backed Yes9c2,133$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.94616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No64c2,115$1,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7533,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb416…4588backed Yes37c2,000$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Yes10c2,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf747…7d29backed No57c1,730$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$744.25714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.28per pick42cpaid-74.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked No80c1,613$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.684257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Yes4c1,423$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.918554.1%100 W · 85 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14c2…7d55backed No50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6004734%16 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4791…02b4backed Yes9c1,140$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.62425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked No79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2109150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1572…7991backed Yes9c999.91$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.991822.2%4 W · 14 L-5.0wins-0.28per pick50cpaid-60.4%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Yes37c967.07$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.471,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes21c951.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.8228241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed No42c951.13$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.895230.8%16 W · 36 L+6.9wins+0.13per pick17cpaid+193.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No63c906$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.223259.4%19 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Yes10c789.47$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.3153140.7%216 W · 315 L-13.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Yes38c741.74$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.796030%18 W · 42 L-6.6wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-28.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39b2…9460backed Yes8c623.88$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.91825%2 W · 6 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+200.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes41c546.02$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.340744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34b8…81afbacked Yes38c526.32$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes38c525.5$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.417549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeef3…0547backed Yes39c512.82$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed No50c501$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.512952.7%68 W · 61 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked Yes10c480$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-64.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x780f…5f16backed No65c464.43$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.43540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-35.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bdd…aa2dbacked Yes10c350$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8006…94dcbacked Yes6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick34cpaid+30%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4ec…1cc8backed Yes6c316.67$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1920%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Yes47c310.13$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9db0…0f6abacked No49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1535356.6%30 W · 23 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xba97…716bbacked Yes10c300$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-34.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x86a6…1b3ebacked Yes45c277.78$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1251656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037f…dd7ebacked Yes9c269.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf009…19e9backed Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2512538.4%48 W · 77 L-0.3wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdba1…7198backed Yes10c250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x487d…ca74backed Yes10c241.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c2c…90d4backed No60c230.74$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.33857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Yes10c229$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.91526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-49%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked No53c222.72$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1052268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+37%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc8c7…3726backed Yes9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204535.6%16 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Yes6c221.33$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.496232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked No57c215$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.1534655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c07…4529backed Yes6c200$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-42.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb236…aafbbacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7da4…f0a4backed Yes14c190$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.18387.9%3 W · 35 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-32.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x03ed…8f34backed Yes9c189.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03c7…22f2backed No53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.681435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf81a…719abacked Yes10c180$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b76…c036backed Yes19c168$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.48205%1 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.12per pick17cpaid-36.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfec2…08afbacked Yes9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152250%11 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x113f…95a6backed No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.252962.1%18 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6705…8184backed No61c140$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+57.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c0a…77b5backed Yes38c130.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked No79c120.26$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.697455.4%41 W · 33 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked No58c116$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7214652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf56c…fcbdbacked No53c115.09$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.09650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb876…d9c3backed No51c110$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked No68c109.99$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.7414755.8%82 W · 65 L+5.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Yes36c108$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.882347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc96…1245backed Yes50c104.78$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.71955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No42c104.76$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.768844.3%39 W · 49 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eca…bab3backed Yes16c103.26$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-50.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc551…cec1backed Yes10c101$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+117.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12f9…74babacked No65c100.33$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.099476.6%72 W · 22 L+16.8wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+49.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xcc13…5c6fbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115244.2%23 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x39f8…badabacked Yes50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x55ab…4f88backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.012740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-18.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce66…1f1ebacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x25bf…1184backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes33c94$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.0248141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f82…c446backed No68c88.49$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.49650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid+79.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x089c…4dc4backed Yes16c83.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.016640.9%27 W · 39 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed No78c80$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.617456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No50c75.17$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.747136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-28.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked No63c70.89$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.025756.1%32 W · 25 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b67…829fbacked Yes38c62.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.946937.7%26 W · 43 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Yes45c60$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.239857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f5e…e107backed Yes45c56.09$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c63…23b3backed Yes56c53.51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a3c…4b61backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.51040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c8f…d581backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257338.4%28 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0199…4e86backed No53c46.73$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.961681.3%13 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick64cpaid+28%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf9b5…1212backed Yes41c46.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910532.4%34 W · 71 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x4e80…c709backed No53c45.06$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.18580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+37.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca08…c267backed Yes52c35.55$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b47…2d4bbacked Yes37c32.43$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70e6…45cbbacked Yes41c31.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…cb2bbacked Yes50c31.15$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c1e…a29ebacked Yes47c27.66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-40.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed No57c25.95$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.166946.4%32 W · 37 L-7.3wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-16.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c8f…da09backed No58c20.91$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.783164.5%20 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+26.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0943…1d8dbacked Yes50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94f4…8a08backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.