TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,876,559
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,971,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,876,559 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 836 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbee5…a636backed Yes65c2,438,109$1,576,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861,582.58450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe26c…88cfbacked No35c540,503$191,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191,777.09633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa710…23c4backed No36c364,587$132,615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132,614.54728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick52cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed No35c276,033$96,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96,167.315945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No36c255,200$91,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91,1502941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed No35c170,006$58,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,752.274042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd29…77aebacked Yes64c153,045$97,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,332.196358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2759…2b38backed No35c137,669$47,730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,729.723132.3%10 W · 21 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+26.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5966…f804backed No37c100,000$37,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37,000366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-10.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x91ee…c5b8backed Yes66c100,000$66,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,000475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+74.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed No35c88,252$30,888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,888.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+27.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked No35c87,010$30,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,125.083250%16 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked No35c80,000$28,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,999.991747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No36c63,499$22,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,742.586755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed No36c53,725$19,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,341.053154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No35c51,747$18,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,308.341,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed No36c51,330$18,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,265.74740.4%19 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc41d…74fdbacked No35c48,700$17,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,044.98650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No31c44,616$13,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,647.863,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee0b…e6d4backed No35c44,495$15,573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,573.25850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62ca…1760backed No35c40,000$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,0003145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed No35c32,865$11,646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,645.964228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+16.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eca…5a59backed No35c32,311$11,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,308.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No36c32,135$11,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,661.213333.3%11 W · 22 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+15.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes62c31,452$19,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,002.517538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf344…9a04backed No35c27,821$9,737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,737.391163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.24per pick39cpaid+63.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c95…ed41backed No36c24,110$8,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,637.41428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-16.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed No35c22,545$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,999.973056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5eb…93bfbacked Yes70c21,441$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,441.35540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Yes68c21,276$14,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,804.9528345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed No34c20,000$6,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,799.9838748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc8…2f68backed No36c19,410$6,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,988.361540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked No35c18,820$6,587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,586.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No29c18,464$5,433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,432.552,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ee0…9c9abacked No36c15,900$5,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,7241250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+41.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c74…bd4ebacked Yes66c15,152$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,151.522254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44c5…8d45backed Yes67c15,030$10,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,972.316045%72 W · 88 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Yes64c15,000$9,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.966761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9828…0f7ebacked No35c14,905$5,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,216.75742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+41.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked No37c14,350$5,355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,354.93837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick56cpaid-45.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked No35c14,040$4,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,9141030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-36.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed No36c13,889$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0008547.1%40 W · 45 L-8.0wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-22.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No38c13,662$5,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,150.1469851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes65c13,454$8,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,703.8110641.5%44 W · 62 L+6.2wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No31c13,093$4,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,076.751,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29cc…3c29backed No38c12,960$4,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,924.761060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+45.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6203…6280backed No37c12,880$4,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,765.572035%7 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No37c12,500$4,660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,659.99742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked No37c10,971$4,059 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,059.272218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked No35c10,000$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,50016652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked No37c9,858$3,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,681.94540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb619…5068backed Yes60c9,686$5,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,917.985952.5%31 W · 28 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+20.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed No35c8,976$3,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,141.612740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid+12%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked No36c8,870$3,187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,187.3727138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba6f…fd5bbacked Yes60c8,300$4,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,320955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed No23c8,000$1,875 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,874.964043.9%281 W · 359 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad25…8de8backed Yes62c7,974$4,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,029.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked No36c7,939$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,880.07955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked No35c7,700$2,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6952951.7%15 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick41cpaid+26.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No32c7,372$2,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,324.911,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa738…437abacked Yes66c7,237$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,436.571275%9 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x08f0…b809backed No35c7,217$2,537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,536.721942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked No37c7,116$2,655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,655.3320548.3%99 W · 106 L-10.0wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc0fd…a0a9backed No35c6,594$2,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,307.89966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+49.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaebc…fb65backed Yes62c6,500$4,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4405100%5 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd776…ffebbacked No36c6,447$2,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,320.774341.9%18 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No38c6,000$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2805461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x88f9…325dbacked No37c5,581$2,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,064.911030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ff…32ebbacked No33c5,421$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.01666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No23c5,355$1,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.6548658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed No36c5,287$1,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,903.327443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed No37c5,232$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,935.913836.8%14 W · 24 L-4.8wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes72c5,117$3,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,410.14257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa2b…5dfebacked No42c5,054$2,102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.191050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb73…53b0backed Yes61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,950650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+83.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec59…bb35backed Yes61c5,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9406762.7%42 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29f8…cfb1backed Yes64c4,812$3,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,721.995455.6%30 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4607…d542backed Yes65c4,615$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Yes65c4,230$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,494.481258.3%7 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No36c4,226$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,533.2120845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed No37c4,140$1,531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,530.718644.1%82 W · 104 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2952…97b0backed No37c3,898$1,441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked No37c3,710$1,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.7511049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No36c3,564$1,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,266.6856951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9ac…8de4backed No37c3,350$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.3540%0 W · 4 L-2.3wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed No31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ddc…03c3backed No38c3,218$1,223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,222.91833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc864…97dfbacked No37c3,100$1,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1471936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Yes65c3,092$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,092.35666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd306…463dbacked Yes66c3,030$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.32975.9%22 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick66cpaid+17.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No37c3,005$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,112.059048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed No34c3,000$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0202857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c6…d14dbacked Yes67c2,985$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.05250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…c875backed Yes69c2,899$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.551346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-29.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe988…cf23backed No38c2,817$1,069 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.49540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+24.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed No37c2,758$1,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.8211338.9%44 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c2d…6443backed No35c2,436$853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.741030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…2a13backed Yes63c2,381$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No36c2,269$817 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.367255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No37c2,140$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.6128755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.