Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7610f220d1faca017d6a98db8a15f0526ea6b2130ea6db8cc9d7dbf2fd5fce5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,117
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $135,109
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,117 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b4…b8a9backed Yes | 1c | 38,231$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0b…5577backed Yes | 20c | 6,667$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.34 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 15c | 6,522$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.79 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 80c | 5,045$4,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,010.06 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…0122backed Yes | 22c | 4,500$1,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,010 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed Yes | 19c | 4,000$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 14c | 2,986$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.79 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed No | 80c | 2,851$2,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.15 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Yes | 23c | 2,849$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.31 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 12c | 2,611$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe54…3eddbacked Yes | 20c | 2,025$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 19c | 1,911$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.05 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Yes | 19c | 1,021$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.26 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 18c | 922.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.09 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 20c | 880$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 19c | 621.05$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 25c | 593.83$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.46 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x459f…c1f5backed Yes | 20c | 528.74$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.75 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 501.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.99 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 75c | 499.59$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.28 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…4d53backed Yes | 15c | 466.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Yes | 10c | 441.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…e3c2backed Yes | 25c | 428.32$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58be…2517backed Yes | 15c | 326.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.8wins | -0.23per pick | 28cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 19c | 321.05$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe875…8492backed Yes | 7c | 287.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Yes | 19c | 170.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 271 | 38.4%104 W · 167 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c8…6327backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 80c | 147.3$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02a6…2f74backed Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 14c | 135.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Yes | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 20c | 114.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 15c | 114.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 79c | 109.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 147 | 55.8%82 W · 65 L | +5.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…fef1backed Yes | 14c | 106.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…25b0backed Yes | 20c | 102.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x644b…ec38backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdba4…1528backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…eadfbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.46per pick | 38cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Yes | 22c | 92.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 19c | 91.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 17c | 88.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked No | 76c | 84.39$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…f954backed Yes | 23c | 73.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abe…1ddabacked Yes | 18c | 72.63$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 80c | 67.94$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 20c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…78febacked Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 75c | 59.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 19c | 55.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 75c | 54.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 21c | 51.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc826…fcb3backed Yes | 20c | 51.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb8…8489backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 24c | 43.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x202b…e209backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 27cpaid | +99.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 79c | 14.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-09?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.