TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Rangers vs. Lightning

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Rangersof Rangers, Lightning
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,477,228
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,431,010

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,477,228 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 907 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1925…4654backed Rangers42c592,258$247,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344,651.1511644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Lightning56c537,751$303,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303,140.6322443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Rangers44c322,931$140,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182,067.8467051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Lightning55c173,341$95,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95,030.871,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Rangers43c95,684$40,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,010.3941850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe015…6ffdbacked Rangers40c88,379$35,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,192.92564%16 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc29a…7816backed Rangers43c71,608$30,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,105.888240.2%33 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Rangers45c50,000$22,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,5003056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbca1…dd13backed Lightning61c50,000$30,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,5001747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Rangers40c50,000$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,999.9848545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Lightning57c48,382$27,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,453.8361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x783c…146abacked Lightning57c47,541$27,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,209.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Rangers46c44,542$20,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,188.561,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6b1…78fdbacked Lightning56c41,168$23,154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,154.085639.3%22 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lightning55c36,908$20,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,448.7140351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Lightning60c26,740$15,985 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,984.618452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Rangers39c25,434$9,932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,501.781,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb569…ffdbbacked Rangers41c24,900$10,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,691450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Lightning57c23,650$13,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,4827737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed Lightning56c22,871$12,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,807.763243.8%14 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-15.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcbf…d37fbacked Lightning52c21,880$11,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,377.52944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lightning59c19,234$11,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,348.091,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Lightning59c19,121$11,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,361.3351550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f2f…be86backed Lightning61c18,115$11,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,049.892564%16 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Lightning57c17,942$10,315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,315.2833450.9%170 W · 164 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Lightning56c17,643$9,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,872.3820756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Rangers43c17,089$7,348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,740.862445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Rangers44c16,776$7,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,317.9640356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7b…9dcabacked Rangers43c15,885$6,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,029.68862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe220…c7bfbacked Lightning52c15,700$8,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,164.06250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Rangers36c15,572$5,598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,973.8356649.5%280 W · 286 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Lightning57c15,523$8,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,847.972,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Rangers43c15,000$6,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,549.991662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lightning39c14,299$5,522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,522.142,31446.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L-7.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Lightning61c12,295$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,50018853.2%100 W · 88 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e76…ef4ebacked Lightning56c11,750$6,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,580333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Lightning56c11,700$6,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5525350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Lightning56c11,248$6,299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,298.6614553.1%77 W · 68 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Lightning56c11,136$6,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,236.163554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Rangers46c11,000$5,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,930862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick52cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Rangers41c10,220$4,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,983.925447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lightning58c10,215$5,945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,944.7459450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning42c9,372$3,954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,954.452,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Lightning58c9,000$5,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,219.9926058.8%153 W · 107 L+17.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Lightning59c8,607$5,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,058.2537754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Lightning21c8,604$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.741,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdafd…5ffbbacked Rangers61c8,090$4,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,155.21650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Lightning7c8,016$561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.1213841.3%57 W · 81 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2461…f240backed Lightning9c7,972$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Lightning60c7,800$4,682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,6823056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Lightning43c7,203$3,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.2733234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed Lightning56c7,122$3,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,988.31650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Lightning57c7,080$4,036 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,035.5918641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Rangers47c6,383$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.963046.7%14 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1b…3d46backed Rangers48c6,233$2,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,240.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Rangers46c6,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2408854.5%48 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fc…520ebacked Rangers48c6,000$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Lightning56c5,850$3,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2766456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf715…2c2abacked Lightning60c5,454$3,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,272.884247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f08…5afbbacked Lightning58c5,445$3,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,136.719038.9%35 W · 55 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Lightning58c5,413$3,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,131.3617247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Rangers45c5,400$2,430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,9703647.2%17 W · 19 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Lightning40c5,302$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.7612838.3%49 W · 79 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lightning60c5,290$3,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,17485250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4da…3175backed Rangers44c5,009$2,192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,817.2228251.8%146 W · 136 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8101…e7bebacked Rangers47c5,000$2,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,675875%6 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+27.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee39…59bfbacked Lightning60c4,982$2,989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,989.191241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.22per pick63cpaid-37.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Rangers45c4,792$2,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,619.2641354.5%225 W · 188 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f6…e497backed Lightning61c4,723$2,881 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,880.6910066%66 W · 34 L+8.6wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed Lightning10c4,719$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.5430259.6%180 W · 122 L+31.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+16.7%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Lightning9c4,716$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.5432451.2%166 W · 158 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+6.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbd…c4e4backed Rangers41c4,654$1,908 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,745.8613850.7%70 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Lightning57c4,633$2,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.7719759.4%117 W · 80 L+10.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Rangers46c4,338$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,338.48946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbbd…d6f0backed Rangers46c4,140$1,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,235.62060%12 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+33%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Rangers43c4,000$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.997750.6%39 W · 38 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Rangers44c3,946$1,726 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,219.6820450%102 W · 102 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Lightning47c3,818$1,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,793.52,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x696a…e23abacked Rangers39c3,818$1,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,328.971172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.29per pick44cpaid+70.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Lightning55c3,816$2,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,102.895242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Lightning54c3,774$2,047 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.124856.3%27 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x111f…9bebbacked Lightning57c3,768$2,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,147.76742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf1…795fbacked Lightning56c3,744$2,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,096.643154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Rangers43c3,715$1,597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.4138849.5%192 W · 196 L+0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Lightning60c3,707$2,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,22432151.7%166 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Lightning18c3,655$651 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.7189636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Rangers74c3,647$2,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$949.1115448.1%74 W · 80 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Lightning60c3,592$2,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,15524952.2%130 W · 119 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Lightning56c3,571$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked Lightning57c3,509$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0002979.3%23 W · 6 L+5.1wins+0.17per pick62cpaid+27.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9161…3de7backed Rangers48c3,502$1,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,821.03560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Lightning7c3,457$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.331828.3%90 W · 228 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Lightning31c3,362$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,029.5627037.4%101 W · 169 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc947…3462backed Lightning57c3,333$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9002360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Rangers44c3,333$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.4886649.9%432 W · 434 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Rangers48c3,300$1,573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,72726154%141 W · 120 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d87…8dbbbacked Lightning26c3,274$858 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$857.6510947.7%52 W · 57 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Rangers41c3,229$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,912.1910146.5%47 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Lightning35c3,168$1,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,095.6511251.8%58 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Lightning8c3,034$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.8222043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.