NHL · resolved market
Spread: Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca2a1a3f48e8577be2697d4280731632e7969c18944d1a31be01dd6d7a4329e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rangersof Rangers, Lightning
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,334
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,334 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Lightning | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4285…cfb5backed Rangers | 23c | 1,039$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.71 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Rangers | 30c | 1,036$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$721.27 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…3231backed Rangers | 30c | 286.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.8 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lightning | 77c | 256.29$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.06 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Lightning | 35c | 219.95$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Lightning | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Lightning | 77c | 200$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Rangers | 33c | 189.3$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.77 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Rangers | 69c | 161$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ef…6559backed Rangers | 68c | 144.24$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd977…0e61backed Lightning | 62c | 137.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Lightning | 32c | 111.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Rangers | 30c | 95.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Rangers | 52c | 69.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Lightning | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Rangers | 26c | 54.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.01 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Lightning | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a70…a50bbacked Lightning | 77c | 39.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Lightning | 69c | 28.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2488…ff0ebacked Rangers | 63c | 20.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Lightning | 58c | 18.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Rangers | 64c | 15.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)this page
- Rangers vs. LightningRangers won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.