NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x197a691da18651687f503be25341bf56e75fc2c00f17b0212739b4cb9b13225e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,742
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe015…6ffdbacked Over | 59c | 5,253$3,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,132.67 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 40c | 3,674$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.57 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 43c | 2,222$955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.45 | 866 | 49.9%432 W · 434 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf63a…90e6backed Over | 61c | 2,107$1,285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$821.56 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 1,813$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.46 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 41c | 1,305$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.09 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 1,009$414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.62 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 65c | 1,007$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.43 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 58c | 411.39$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.53 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 6c | 397.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87f0…361dbacked Over | 57c | 360$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.8 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +6.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Under | 41c | 334.59$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.18 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 42c | 269$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.98 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 42c | 239$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.38 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 70c | 219.89$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.47 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 47c | 207.25$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.96 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 35c | 114.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57c8…3d9bbacked Under | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 71c | 90.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 26c | 78.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 69c | 78$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8847…0a81backed Under | 41c | 76.84$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeafd…723fbacked Under | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…3e48backed Under | 41c | 66.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 29c | 55.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 50.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…d824backed Under | 46c | 47.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 66c | 41$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 43c | 38.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4d…4c76backed Under | 41c | 37.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 41c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 276 | 59.4%164 W · 112 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 67c | 32.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 31.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88fe…104dbacked Over | 56c | 30.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…3728backed Over | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…98f9backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -41%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…8617backed Over | 60c | 22.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 59c | 20.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Over | 59c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…8dbbbacked Over | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Over | 63c | 17.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 88 | 50%44 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5this page
- Rangers vs. LightningRangers won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.