NHL · resolved market
Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc312ce64d7185c5dacef03d3d5a857244e22a9ed1264841701cdd8c35cf2cd68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,970
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,970 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Over | 26c | 778.23$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.22 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b66…02edbacked Under | 71c | 625.14$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 29c | 562.73$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.64 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 52c | 389.69$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.89 | 413 | 40%165 W · 248 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Under | 43c | 234.6$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.88 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 61c | 231$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.02 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x720b…f155backed Under | 76c | 225.72$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.1 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 66cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 219.38$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.84 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Under | 48c | 215.6$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.11 | 385 | 51.4%198 W · 187 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d74…ad52backed Under | 51c | 196.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 71c | 186$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.72 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 58c | 155.78$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.67 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 72c | 127$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 68c | 122.76$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Over | 24c | 117.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 25c | 107.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 21c | 97.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.83 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 41c | 82.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 67c | 80.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.04 | 513 | 43.3%222 W · 291 L | -21.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Over | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 261 | 54%141 W · 120 L | +7.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cc…015bbacked Over | 38c | 75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 80c | 68.6$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Over | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 61c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | -15.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 73c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 77c | 58.44$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Over | 46c | 50.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Over | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Under | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | -13.1wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Over | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 50c | 47.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…88a0backed Under | 76c | 44.16$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…4843backed Under | 76c | 42.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24d3…30abbacked Over | 76c | 41.44$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 170 | 57.1%97 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1a…7451backed Under | 75c | 40.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 46c | 35.67$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,140 | 51.5%587 W · 553 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 100 | 66%66 W · 34 L | +8.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 52c | 31.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 71c | 31.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 73c | 30.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 44c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 75c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5312…09dcbacked Under | 76c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8587…acaabacked Under | 75c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Under | 73c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 202 | 45%91 W · 111 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7484…c549backed Under | 74c | 17.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae03…6b36backed Under | 74c | 17.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…6e8cbacked Under | 76c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 76c | 16.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 71 | 67.6%48 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5471…a236backed Under | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd36e…4b50backed Under | 76c | 15.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 7.5this page
- Rangers vs. LightningRangers won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 4.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5Over won
- Rangers vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Rangers (-1.5)Rangers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.