TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Canadiens vs. Flyers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Flyersof Canadiens, Flyers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,645,866
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,691,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,645,866 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 768 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a72…33eebacked Canadiens70c607,860$427,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427,923.921,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Flyers29c463,116$133,730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329,386.5822443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Canadiens70c123,715$86,074 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86,073.591,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Flyers33c78,927$25,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52,948.141,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f28…266ebacked Canadiens71c70,000$49,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,7001947.4%9 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-22.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Flyers30c69,232$21,099 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48,133.2240351.9%209 W · 194 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Canadiens72c60,000$43,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,20048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1925…4654backed Canadiens61c54,052$32,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,914.7811644.8%52 W · 64 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03e8…1697backed Canadiens65c49,959$32,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,460.6867051%342 W · 328 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Flyers36c40,410$14,663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,747.6351550.7%261 W · 254 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Flyers32c37,058$11,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,091.6361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc29a…7816backed Flyers28c36,999$10,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,519.568240.2%33 W · 49 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc96e…f1f9backed Flyers31c35,992$11,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,837.99650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+30.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Canadiens68c35,237$23,834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,833.6540356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Canadiens67c33,111$22,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,308.8141850%209 W · 209 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Flyers30c31,566$9,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,983.3359450.8%302 W · 292 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Flyers29c27,000$7,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,17041842.8%179 W · 239 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Flyers29c26,055$7,568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,486.5818452.7%97 W · 87 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a2…ae70backed Flyers29c21,684$6,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,472.2412047.5%57 W · 63 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Flyers31c20,560$6,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,127.192,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d2f…ef1abacked Flyers29c20,300$5,822 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,4782347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Flyers31c19,349$5,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,390.722,66451.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Flyers30c15,500$4,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,8503953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Flyers34c14,245$4,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,401.6215949.7%79 W · 80 L-0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Canadiens69c12,927$8,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,889.1625552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2b8…b908backed Flyers30c12,198$3,659 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,538.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-31.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Flyers41c12,010$4,924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,085.94450%22 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…ccfbbacked Canadiens69c11,019$7,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,624.2112654.8%69 W · 57 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Flyers49c10,489$5,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,352.483,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Flyers46c10,099$4,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,503.933234.3%114 W · 218 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6551…e043backed Canadiens65c10,000$6,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,5001747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Flyers30c9,600$2,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,72051452.3%269 W · 245 L+17.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Flyers45c8,990$4,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,944.531,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bb6…cb97backed Flyers30c8,316$2,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,821.25350.9%27 W · 26 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Flyers30c8,020$2,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,6143554.3%19 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefc9…b337backed Canadiens49c7,413$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,609.646940.6%28 W · 41 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Flyers30c7,173$2,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,021.117247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcec1…9c0cbacked Flyers29c7,076$2,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,023.7538551.4%198 W · 187 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Canadiens73c7,046$5,144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,143.5875251.7%389 W · 363 L-2.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Flyers32c7,000$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,739.8733151.7%171 W · 160 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07aa…deb1backed Canadiens40c6,330$2,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,528.078845.5%40 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Flyers30c6,303$1,919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,384.151,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9fb…8feebacked Flyers35c6,195$2,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,026.6119050.5%96 W · 94 L-0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8688…9d8cbacked Flyers32c6,156$1,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,186.252748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…2d22backed Flyers35c6,017$2,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,911.148854.5%48 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Canadiens71c6,000$4,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2601947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56c2…17bfbacked Canadiens64c5,970$3,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,820.2725447.2%120 W · 134 L-1.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…bb8fbacked Flyers30c5,920$1,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1446456.3%36 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Canadiens66c5,771$3,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,825.672,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe1f6…c6e0backed Canadiens65c5,720$3,718 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,717.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-44.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Flyers41c5,366$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,165.858946.1%41 W · 48 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Canadiens32c5,267$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,704.7189355.5%496 W · 397 L+67.6wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Flyers29c4,900$1,421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,47918641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a6c…236dbacked Canadiens72c4,825$3,474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,473.913056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Flyers29c4,676$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,320.145959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Flyers38c4,500$1,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7959751.5%50 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Flyers38c4,500$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,79043548.5%211 W · 224 L-7.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Flyers38c4,500$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,79027850.4%140 W · 138 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Flyers38c4,500$1,710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,79060249.5%298 W · 304 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16bd…e288backed Flyers28c4,444$1,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,221.842948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Canadiens72c4,000$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,88039752.1%207 W · 190 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eed…85a9backed Flyers30c3,818$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,672.67358.9%43 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xec7e…5fddbacked Flyers32c3,700$1,184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,5163951.3%20 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Flyers30c3,617$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,526.7120756.5%117 W · 90 L+10.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3a06…7b6cbacked Canadiens0c3,560$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Canadiens71c3,333$2,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,366.4331550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa0e…718cbacked Flyers37c3,204$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,018.521050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8188…b171backed Flyers32c3,145$992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,152.951643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Flyers29c3,078$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,179.3237754.4%205 W · 172 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Canadiens74c3,000$2,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,22020552.2%107 W · 98 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd74…888dbacked Flyers47c3,000$1,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5902445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b6…fa47backed Flyers29c2,979$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,115.315230.8%16 W · 36 L-4.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Flyers57c2,975$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,284.272,75447.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L+11.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc974…b33bbacked Flyers30c2,960$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,07210146.5%47 W · 54 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Flyers57c2,902$1,666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,235.811,84657.2%1,055 W · 791 L+85.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+7.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Flyers35c2,865$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,858.389249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed Flyers32c2,772$891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.0610663.2%67 W · 39 L+7.7wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+13.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Flyers74c2,710$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.4111950.4%60 W · 59 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Flyers61c2,653$1,630 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,022.6889636.9%331 W · 565 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x039c…b202backed Flyers37c2,570$951 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.14738.3%18 W · 29 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Canadiens14c2,555$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36031828.3%90 W · 228 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Flyers33c2,432$812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,619.8776950.3%387 W · 382 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Flyers31c2,383$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.991,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf90…8e17backed Flyers33c2,274$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.4933941.3%140 W · 199 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c9…4386backed Canadiens58c2,260$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,30036948%177 W · 192 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b35…5da2backed Canadiens30c2,196$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.2522043.2%95 W · 125 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe3dd…cdaebacked Flyers35c2,165$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+23.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Flyers32c2,113$676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.55855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Canadiens69c2,095$1,436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,436.463852.6%20 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Flyers36c2,059$740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.7141354.5%225 W · 188 L+17.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Flyers33c2,051$670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,381.4616546.7%77 W · 88 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc7…2259backed Flyers31c2,020$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.81353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa3…172fbacked Flyers37c2,003$741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,261.896256.5%35 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Canadiens71c2,000$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42011153.2%59 W · 52 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e5…9343backed Flyers34c2,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3202050%10 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x449c…eaf5backed Flyers29c2,000$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.912846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Flyers51c1,968$1,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$955.7314946.3%69 W · 80 L-6.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Flyers33c1,891$624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.9683149.5%411 W · 420 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf715…2c2abacked Canadiens66c1,825$1,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,204.724247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Flyers27c1,722$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.748549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.