NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2797f8ad4560a8f5dc822164996831111acfc7382091a79e1ddec6270310c25c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,395
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,395 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 4,848$2,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,974.04 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 21c | 4,219$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,326.53 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Under | 54c | 2,360$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.37 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 54c | 1,266$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.67 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 72c | 1,095$789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$789.42 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 47c | 891.64$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.07 | 1,434 | 50.8%728 W · 706 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 45c | 796.77$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.53 | 229 | 46.3%106 W · 123 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 49c | 492.45$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.45 | 254 | 49.6%126 W · 128 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x441d…544dbacked Over | 59c | 466.31$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.13 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 46c | 443.39$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.96 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 54c | 432.57$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.19 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 420$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.4 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 43c | 413.75$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.6 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 57c | 338.24$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.45 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 45c | 311$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.46 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a46…2294backed Under | 54c | 297.31$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.76 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Under | 53c | 223.4$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…437cbacked Under | 55c | 222$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Over | 46c | 221.74$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x798b…8e2bbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…1b45backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d2…f397backed Over | 47c | 210.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 29c | 206$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Under | 54c | 205.74$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.64 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…50c8backed Under | 54c | 203.15$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299f…2140backed Over | 45c | 200.04$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.02 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 196.68$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a6…f9fdbacked Under | 54c | 193.39$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3034…17a6backed Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d3…aafbbacked Under | 27c | 178.57$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.96 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 46c | 147$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.62 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 42c | 145$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.85 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 27c | 110$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 253 | 45.5%115 W · 138 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Under | 26c | 90.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Under | 26c | 87.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Under | 26c | 86.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.07 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Under | 27c | 84.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 52 | 69.2%36 W · 16 L | +8.9wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 27c | 78.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 127 | 63.8%81 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 63c | 78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33eb…b07ebacked Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 40c | 69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Under | 26c | 57.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.62 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 63c | 51.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -7.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 27c | 51.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 384 | 47.4%182 W · 202 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 63c | 41.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 64c | 39.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 66c | 37.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 53c | 33.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 40c | 29.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed Over | 73c | 27.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 73c | 26.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 56c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Over | 47c | 25.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…a7b7backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Over | 66c | 19.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Canadiens vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.