NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cc21e75cfa101563a04c75291ff11e8769b64fb12c52906a0651c793bcb83d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 80c | 4,061$3,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$823.1 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 15c | 2,774$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.41 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c6…d14dbacked Under | 1c | 2,100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x995e…13aebacked Over | 59c | 2,038$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 41c | 2,000$820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$820 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 42c | 1,866$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.91 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 59c | 1,500$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.99 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 27c | 1,004$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.74 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 41c | 730.27$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.41 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 65c | 533.34$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.5 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 19c | 508.58$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.24 | 920 | 49.7%457 W · 463 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 42c | 505.18$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.68 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 32c | 500$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.52 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 69c | 435.24$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.07 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…11b3backed Under | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 72c | 368.11$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.05 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 44c | 300$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 108 | 51.9%56 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 72c | 290.83$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.43 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 19c | 264.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 345 | 47.8%165 W · 180 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a29…836dbacked Under | 33c | 181.76$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +74.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 31c | 150.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.11 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 41c | 106$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 860 | 49.2%423 W · 437 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…3670backed Over | 59c | 101.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 318 | 48.7%155 W · 163 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…b579backed Under | 39c | 71.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 79c | 58.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 429 | 48.7%209 W · 220 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 211 | 55.5%117 W · 94 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 60c | 47.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 77c | 41.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +7.6wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Over | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 67c | 36.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 84 | 69%58 W · 26 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 72c | 33.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 214 | 63.1%135 W · 79 L | +16.9wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 74c | 31.26$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Over | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -12.7wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 29.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Under | 41c | 28.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17a3…8cb3backed Over | 57c | 19.72$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.48 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Flyers: O/U 5.5this page
- Canadiens vs. FlyersFlyers won
- Canadiens vs. Flyers: O/U 4.5Over won
- Canadiens vs. Flyers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Canadiens vs. Flyers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.