F1 · resolved market

Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x237e6c651f996ddde223b5ab9e2414b935d152bd3f5d3dfcfdd0ed3239bbbf62

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: F1every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $9,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $8,710

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,117 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in F1
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x033f…618ebacked Yes	49c	1,805$876 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$929.16	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfaa5…7cc9backed No	50c	1,305$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$656.4	57	57.9%33 W · 24 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed No	51c	1,200$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	42cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0459…437fbacked Yes	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-50%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42ab…3e26backed Yes	50c	975$488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$487.5	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked No	50c	846.8$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.78	208	43.3%90 W · 118 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x29fd…2b2bbacked No	68c	586.78$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes	37c	547$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$347.08	118	36.4%43 W · 75 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes	32c	450$144 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306	40	35%14 W · 26 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No	52c	439.44$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.93	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4886…f7cdbacked Yes	48c	416.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.67	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	40cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xaeed…074bbacked No	53c	414.99$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	+4.8wins	+0.09per pick	43cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No	34c	306.91$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.73	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xea65…d27dbacked Yes	71c	169.01$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.01	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-5.2wins	-0.31per pick	60cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	36-0.12 edge/pick
0x87ec…1ee8backed No	65c	153$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-2.7wins	-0.18per pick	38cpaid	-60%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	50c	104.68$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.34	101	28.7%29 W · 72 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe66e…946bbacked No	63c	100$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ec3…5022backed Yes	49c	51.02$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.02	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+29.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe499…e36bbacked Yes	46c	43$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.22	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.54per pick	46cpaid	+117.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Yes	47c	42.99$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.65	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	64cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e04…5eb8backed Yes	48c	41.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.67	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.41per pick	59cpaid	+75.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3708…7c65backed Yes	62c	40.07$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.07	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.17per pick	67cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…0969backed No	64c	39.12$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x080a…ee79backed Yes	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.18per pick	37cpaid	+101%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e81…258dbacked Yes	49c	33.65$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.16	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x949c…ab2cbacked Yes	54c	33.27$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.27	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed Yes	58c	30.5$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.85	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe80e…6178backed No	54c	29.48$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Yes	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes	52c	23.37$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.22	118	45.8%54 W · 64 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc56b…772abacked Yes	66c	15.26$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.19	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lando Norris finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event