F1 · resolved market

Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac53c5ec8dd314fa038fbe3988f7de2e3709aca00049985134333d5cfdc44811

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: F1every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,129
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $10,922

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,129 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in F1
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf971…0a57backed No	32c	1,017$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$694.95	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	35c	786.87$279 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.71	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed No	71c	599.97$425 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.99	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	+4.4wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe9d2…7ad6backed No	15c	458.1$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$389.71	100	65%65 W · 35 L	+20.3wins	+0.20per pick	45cpaid	+66.6%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0x66d5…3456backed No	14c	358.37$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$308.37	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.40per pick	10cpaid	+258.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15a6…bf5dbacked No	50c	354.34$177 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$177.59	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No	39c	329.68$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$200.4	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa23b…af4bbacked No	25c	305$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.8	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafd2…9693backed Yes	17c	300$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	50	22%11 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe66e…946bbacked Yes	58c	300$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e81…258dbacked No	49c	247.7$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$126.87	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78e4…4fb9backed Yes	30c	245.3$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.59	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.23per pick	32cpaid	-88.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes	30c	225.86$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.84	144	29.9%43 W · 101 L	+14.2wins	+0.10per pick	20cpaid	+69.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2af…e3bcbacked No	50c	220.16$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.98	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.28per pick	56cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No	30c	203.4$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$142.07	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0459…437fbacked Yes	57c	174.48$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	28%7 W · 18 L	-3.2wins	-0.13per pick	41cpaid	-50%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9b19…5dccbacked Yes	77c	168.9$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Yes	50c	150$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.9	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+2.2wins	+0.10per pick	34cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed Yes	60c	108.02$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed Yes	30c	105.3$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.59	144	58.3%84 W · 60 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No	43c	102.53$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.81	20	60%12 W · 8 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ce9…0cf5backed Yes	52c	95.11$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.46	118	36.4%43 W · 75 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No	32c	87.73$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.68	101	28.7%29 W · 72 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed No	60c	87.36$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.37	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x976e…ecf3backed Yes	50c	82$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.91	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x280f…60a9backed No	54c	76.35$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.97	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes	14c	74.63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	24	4.2%1 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	11cpaid	-88.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes	41c	70$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.9	118	45.8%54 W · 64 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xade9…6f2abacked No	33c	66.29$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.41	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.8wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+68.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes	44c	64.72$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.48	116	37.9%44 W · 72 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xae0b…0913backed No	55c	64.05$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.05	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3d8…381fbacked Yes	27c	56.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a94…653abacked Yes	56c	53.57$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	40%4 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	49cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1b3…931cbacked Yes	58c	52.12$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.09	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed No	45c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.5	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	57cpaid	+25%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked Yes	50c	49.19$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.56	17	58.8%10 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	58cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8ab…f25bbacked Yes	58c	43.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.7wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x75f2…198cbacked Yes	76c	39.54$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.31per pick	64cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4cb…b928backed Yes	69c	33.17$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.73	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	70cpaid	-5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe652…8e2abacked Yes	55c	30$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.24per pick	37cpaid	-83.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc436…76c9backed Yes	56c	28.33$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc1c…782bbacked Yes	55c	23.8$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Yes	52c	23.28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb64f…b78fbacked Yes	57c	22.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.6wins	-0.54per pick	54cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	74c	22.64$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.92	42	71.4%30 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	73cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x286f…82a5backed No	55c	22.22$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	71cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x949c…ab2cbacked Yes	55c	21.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaf2…e87dbacked Yes	53c	21.32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-3.4wins	-0.26per pick	49cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes	70c	18.56$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Charles Leclerc finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event