F1 · resolved market

Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13d433b3f6ea225cd6d5d086922357324708100b2d55771fd6fd76d25674744f

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: May 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: F1every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $13,199
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $14,180

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,199 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in F1
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x805a…0635backed Yes	24c	6,440$1,578 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,862.16	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	75c	4,787$3,587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,586.6	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No	76c	999.01$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$756.89	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No	78c	897.92$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$699.72	144	58.3%84 W · 60 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	57cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb758…dd73backed Yes	23c	691.71$157 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$534.49	63	36.5%23 W · 40 L	+4.4wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6924…1455backed Yes	75c	365.49$275 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.44	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No	73c	314.48$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.39	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed No	80c	300$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	19	68.4%13 W · 6 L	+2.2wins	+0.11per pick	57cpaid	+25%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6077…3dc0backed Yes	42c	289.36$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.86	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.7wins	-0.09per pick	54cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe66e…946bbacked Yes	23c	250$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.5	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No	76c	218.61$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.16	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No	75c	200$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	20	50%10 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1096…0332backed Yes	25c	200$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.36per pick	31cpaid	+159.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x039a…012dbacked No	6c	177.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Yes	26c	172.76$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.25	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	17c	150$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.5	68	27.9%19 W · 49 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4c…b589backed Yes	20c	101.75$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.75	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+154.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed No	54c	100.19$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.75	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed No	75c	99.44$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.61	10	70%7 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	64cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Yes	32c	94.32$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.32	159	22%35 W · 124 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No	45c	71.73$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.33	20	65%13 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.09per pick	56cpaid	+7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No	67c	61.17$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.05	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…886dbacked No	58c	57$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.92	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	69cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5452…d448backed No	76c	42.93$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.53	56	62.5%35 W · 21 L	+7.2wins	+0.13per pick	50cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed No	50c	39.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	144	29.9%43 W · 101 L	+14.2wins	+0.10per pick	20cpaid	+69.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	28c	39.46$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	63	25.4%16 W · 47 L	-8.9wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes	75c	36.9$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.21	118	45.8%54 W · 64 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3de…fe0ebacked No	78c	30$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	79cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	73c	27.76$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.28	42	71.4%30 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	73cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb70…01c0backed No	75c	25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.75	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.26per pick	68cpaid	-34%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc56b…772abacked No	74c	13.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.06	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Oscar Piastri finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event