F1 · resolved market

Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02c6e554cb7699e29900f1d7c0e959bcd8a47b135e04ca560ea3e5ee634a54e3

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: F1every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $12,752
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,752 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in F1
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x805a…0635backed Yes	19c	7,274$1,366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,365.8	159	32.7%52 W · 107 L	+4.2wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x033f…618ebacked No	80c	4,025$3,217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$807.94	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	-4.8wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5159…d7aebacked No	80c	1,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$300	79	55.7%44 W · 35 L	+3.6wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked No	68c	222.55$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.08	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe66e…946bbacked Yes	23c	206$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.31	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No	78c	179.15$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.97	28	42.9%12 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5968…96f0backed Yes	39c	152.62$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x86ee…511fbacked Yes	21c	64.62$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd33c…40f1backed No	79c	63.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.13	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	62cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b60…76d5backed No	78c	44.55$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	41	34.1%14 W · 27 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe96…25c0backed Yes	34c	43.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc56b…772abacked No	67c	29.84$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.85	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	69cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked No	79c	28.9$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.07	106	52.8%56 W · 50 L	+6.1wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+10.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No	78c	16.18$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.56	118	45.8%54 W · 64 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3de…fe0ebacked No	80c	15$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	79cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed No	79c	14.29$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	56cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lewis Hamilton finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event