Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9ccc660906fec2aaf1e00e9ddfccbc99653fbd8d0a5882452fbe238bddef85d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,867
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $209,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,867 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 49c | 18,352$8,997 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,355.2 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23aa…4008backed Yes | 72c | 11,405$8,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,193.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 26c | 9,573$2,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,036.94 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10e1…aa05backed No | 13c | 7,318$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,386.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 18c | 7,143$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,860.24 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed No | 27c | 5,668$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,121.34 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…d92dbacked No | 20c | 4,706$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,742.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +208.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 73c | 3,787$2,783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,782.54 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…49c1backed Yes | 80c | 3,329$2,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,646.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 65c | 3,039$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,982.11 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 35c | 3,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…36cbbacked No | 15c | 2,931$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,505.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 8cpaid | +482.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 9c | 2,690$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.12 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…1762backed Yes | 57c | 2,672$1,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,533.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 11c | 2,271$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.81 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…acfcbacked No | 61c | 2,036$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.91 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 30c | 1,995$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.74 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 71c | 1,932$1,372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,372.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 51c | 1,930$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 70c | 1,773$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.65 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 74c | 1,642$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.44 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 68c | 1,377$939 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938.94 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 1,174$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.02 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 66c | 1,110$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 5c | 1,047$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.99 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +91%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 34c | 1,024$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.38 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 60c | 1,002$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.8 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 23c | 974.08$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.78 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 30c | 940.83$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.94 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked No | 23c | 884.85$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +329.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736f…deaabacked No | 30c | 879$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +229.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9396…040cbacked No | 16c | 859.84$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +509.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 737.59$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.16 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 77c | 656$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.68 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 54c | 604.7$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.16 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2943…295bbacked No | 8c | 600$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.92per pick | 8cpaid | +1,100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbae5…45e3backed No | 23c | 555.47$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.60per pick | 40cpaid | +204.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x151c…87b2backed Yes | 73c | 555$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 27c | 535.67$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.39 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d9…5490backed No | 42c | 505.67$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9e…9dccbacked No | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 31c | 419.56$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.51 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 28c | 400$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…2115backed No | 33c | 368$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 40c | 361.53$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 30c | 340.81$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.57 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 26c | 340$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8794…fa1bbacked No | 16c | 319.7$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +526.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 46c | 304.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 72c | 300$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked No | 12c | 300$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 73c | 284.31$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20cb…e2b0backed No | 18c | 280.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +461.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 56c | 269.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed No | 27c | 268.24$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 38c | 258.25$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d85…0d82backed No | 28c | 256.93$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 226.9$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.31 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…355bbacked No | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +397.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0e…4a20backed Yes | 67c | 200$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f4…a711backed No | 28c | 199.44$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 37c | 192.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bf…e557backed No | 19c | 183.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +429.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 74c | 183.08$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 74c | 175.91$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.44 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…3a92backed No | 52c | 170$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 166.39$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.81 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac23…46ebbacked Yes | 64c | 164.88$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +95%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 24c | 164.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…445dbacked No | 12c | 162.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.88per pick | 12cpaid | +733.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 46c | 153$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 27c | 151.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a9…d928backed No | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85ee…a64abacked No | 23c | 145.57$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…f1ffbacked No | 15c | 138.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 32c | 137.44$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42ab…3e26backed Yes | 60c | 126.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 32c | 119.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 55c | 119.12$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99b…1211backed No | 27c | 117.57$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +247.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d6…9689backed No | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.8wins | -0.35per pick | 62cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 58c | 98.35$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 41c | 96.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 27c | 89.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.44per pick | 31cpaid | +236.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 73c | 87.84$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…0df3backed Yes | 72c | 84.56$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbdf…f7d1backed No | 61c | 83.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…0d18backed No | 29c | 83.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45fe…4c1abacked No | 25c | 80.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +306.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf6…7521backed Yes | 77c | 80$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked No | 27c | 75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +265.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 50c | 74.34$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked No | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 31c | 64.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed No | 28c | 64.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed No | 59c | 59.82$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?this page
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 13?Yes won
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2?No won
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5?Yes won
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.