Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a4fad0671a8abe1314fd8facf4f84f02afcd0b1d0b913916a5189475a0e1116
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,129
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,129 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 45c | 867.05$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.82 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 49c | 581.49$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.53 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc26…4b92backed No | 16c | 360.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 70c | 143.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3089…92f6backed Yes | 15c | 85.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +71%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 74.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 94 | 3.2%3 W · 91 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 57c | 59.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf668…e47abacked No | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 71c | 39.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 42c | 24.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 58c | 20.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked Yes | 59c | 19.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5?this page
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 13?Yes won
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2?No won
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?No won
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.