Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d1f2cadc462c0e4fbdaaf46e548dc71ebe75a0ac826fa71db4eb3f3c6028907
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,357
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 70c | 5,109$3,588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.67 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed Yes | 15c | 4,339$643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.41 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 13c | 2,700$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed Yes | 78c | 2,602$2,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,022.22 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked No | 27c | 2,344$643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +7.5wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +210.2%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 2,141$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.41 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d2…7048backed Yes | 5c | 1,910$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed No | 41c | 1,598$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 23c | 1,438$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.13 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 21c | 1,179$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.64 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +4.3wins | +0.25per pick | 28cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 71c | 856.53$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.14 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…06acbacked No | 80c | 745.15$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 78c | 735.36$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.91 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +35%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0354…2913backed Yes | 74c | 711.33$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.29 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 31c | 600$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454e…36cbbacked No | 9c | 529.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 8cpaid | +482.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 29c | 520$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.37 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 6c | 509.53$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 72 | 8.3%6 W · 66 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 4c | 504.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 41 | 4.9%2 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 19c | 495.46$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.42 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 22c | 460.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.15 | 101 | 35.6%36 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d8a…8730backed Yes | 16c | 450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf25c…732cbacked Yes | 16c | 450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…6800backed Yes | 27c | 448.49$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 19c | 413.2$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 399.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 25c | 338.2$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.03 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…06d7backed No | 27c | 300.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 286.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 76 | 5.3%4 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5693…a473backed No | 16c | 286.25$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b84…ce7abacked No | 16c | 270.38$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 12c | 255.19$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd81e…355bbacked No | 16c | 250$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +397.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 38c | 212.6$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.21 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 35c | 211.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.57 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac23…46ebbacked No | 26c | 200.39$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +95%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…c990backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 69c | 199.67$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.94 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked Yes | 27c | 196.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 23c | 153.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.87 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7748…58d7backed Yes | 75c | 147.44$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.58 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x527d…50fabacked No | 25c | 147.44$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed Yes | 69c | 133.37$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 30c | 127.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.22 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…0357backed No | 17c | 121.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +202.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 32c | 109.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +152.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 103.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c23…91debacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed No | 35c | 99.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.99 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +74.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 70c | 97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 34c | 90$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 28c | 85.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.27 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 38c | 81.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 20c | 66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 17cpaid | +272.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9138…0690backed Yes | 75c | 56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 61cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 41c | 47.68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +155.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82cd…d7d8backed No | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed Yes | 71c | 37.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…543abacked Yes | 77c | 35.04$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcecf…e206backed Yes | 71c | 33.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -40%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b9…0893backed Yes | 72c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4412…f131backed No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x994c…36afbacked Yes | 70c | 21.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…d156backed Yes | 67c | 18.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 31?this page
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 13?Yes won
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 2?No won
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by June 5?Yes won
- Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.