TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,420,315
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,304,560

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,420,315 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 571 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes78c107,669$84,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,666.0748923.5%115 W · 374 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x053d…caedbacked No31c82,447$25,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,741.652821.4%6 W · 22 L-5.0wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-60.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No3c57,552$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,813.9936227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked No6c39,035$2,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,287.7717530.9%54 W · 121 L-0.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed Yes51c35,316$18,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,189.68633.7%29 W · 57 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+28.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No7c30,040$1,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,987.0132243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x35bb…009bbacked Yes79c21,804$17,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,511.2716553.9%89 W · 76 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd35b…4a53backed No1c20,000$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid+1,061.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3db…0f98backed Yes63c17,007$10,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,290.797150.7%36 W · 35 L+11.2wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+94.5%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed No62c16,665$10,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,349.1335355.5%196 W · 157 L+36.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+20.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfc2f…10c7backed No4c16,600$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.5135631.7%113 W · 243 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d77…cf31backed No1c16,122$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.781146.1%7 W · 107 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe437…ed7dbacked No1c15,749$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.9780%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked No2c15,076$351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.5617414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46c9…7636backed No15c14,998$2,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,233.993652.8%19 W · 17 L+6.4wins+0.18per pick35cpaid+37.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x8ed8…7c2fbacked No35c14,695$5,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,118.412060%12 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No73c14,500$10,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,512.864143.9%18 W · 23 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-25.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No15c12,906$1,948 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,948.1945843.7%200 W · 258 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd1…a156backed No37c12,904$4,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,756.8515541.9%65 W · 90 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…0e89backed No0c12,722$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x131a…73f9backed Yes68c12,252$8,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,975.174835.4%17 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes53c11,397$6,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,328.6227643.5%120 W · 156 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc26…32cabacked No3c11,068$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.148719.5%17 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-45.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c9f…069fbacked No2c11,027$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.131145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-28.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed No42c10,852$4,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,532.5338247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6bab…0fe5backed No69c10,589$7,267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,266.925541.8%23 W · 32 L-5.6wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-34.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked Yes73c10,113$7,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,689.598359%49 W · 34 L+0.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ae…a7aabacked No5c9,971$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.39520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick8cpaid+28.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e73…6697backed Yes56c8,580$4,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,769.9619639.8%78 W · 118 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes35c8,447$2,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,457.323040%12 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No11c8,095$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$860.0525339.5%100 W · 153 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes39c7,764$3,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,757.9837740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes40c7,048$2,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,263.122529.8%67 W · 158 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aac…66fbbacked No34c6,595$2,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,273.893327.3%9 W · 24 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-46.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Yes63c6,473$4,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,377.62842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+131%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0254…2189backed No43c6,409$2,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,772.66250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+98.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0a…6477backed No0c6,237$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72ef…f569backed Yes37c6,215$2,314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,901.124320.9%9 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+95.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x41d1…0a19backed No5c6,064$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.961353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc80f…93c8backed No11c6,053$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.1213022.3%29 W · 101 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-48.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed Yes21c5,965$1,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,693.6838237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x96ef…5523backed Yes45c5,662$2,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,141.6111842.4%50 W · 68 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid-5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No13c5,609$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$745.09527.7%4 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes42c5,608$2,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,275.234524.4%11 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid+44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35b3…8f88backed No0c5,122$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc595…46a3backed No40c5,108$2,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,038.8320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2c…f03fbacked Yes10c4,853$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,353.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+385.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes66c4,811$3,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,659.3710945.9%50 W · 59 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa204…bf99backed Yes53c4,627$2,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,189.964515.6%7 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b17…8187backed No3c4,494$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793d…8720backed Yes41c4,417$1,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601.764734%16 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-13.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes72c4,102$2,957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,144.3528126.3%74 W · 207 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f58…62a5backed No77c4,063$3,115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,115.042360.9%14 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3379…f0b4backed Yes25c3,913$967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,946.01520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid-19.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9c…2a50backed Yes13c3,848$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,347.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+3.4wins+0.48per pick23cpaid+441.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x63a7…0a7abacked No1c3,535$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3958…82e3backed No57c3,513$2,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,010.772321.7%5 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-65.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x692e…ee58backed Yes44c3,464$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,939.322825%7 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…1fcabacked No11c3,400$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.42429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed No1c3,326$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303517.1%6 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+309.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf38…9005backed No9c3,270$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-70.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x486a…70fcbacked No60c3,168$1,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,914.44650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes62c3,115$1,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.677540%30 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaa9…9072backed Yes39c3,083$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,887.96456.3%36 W · 28 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick43cpaid+40%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x420e…e3c9backed No2c3,073$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8818738%71 W · 116 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe9…15a9backed No1c3,069$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a23…0f72backed No13c3,006$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.6111323.9%27 W · 86 L+5.3wins+0.05per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x77fa…1a63backed Yes61c3,001$1,823 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.777529.3%22 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick33cpaid+2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes19c2,997$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.8116743.7%73 W · 94 L+11.9wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+21%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed No53c2,953$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.533444.1%15 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No23c2,939$682 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68220243.1%87 W · 115 L+30.9wins+0.15per pick28cpaid+39.1%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xde7b…5f4bbacked No4c2,860$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.4115230.3%46 W · 106 L+5.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79a8…bb66backed No43c2,830$1,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,218.464839.6%19 W · 29 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-42.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed No63c2,693$1,696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.996060%36 W · 24 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+125.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No30c2,607$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78221259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc087…6201backed No1c2,579$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4478…02a4backed No70c2,544$1,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,784.1528734.5%99 W · 188 L+21.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+0.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed No3c2,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$759434%32 W · 62 L+7.7wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked No13c2,481$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.612328.5%35 W · 88 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked No56c2,336$1,307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3078833%29 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43bb…26dbbacked Yes43c2,329$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,327.912516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked No63c2,238$1,399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,399.033461.8%21 W · 13 L+5.0wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+33.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b02…e5fcbacked Yes26c2,190$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,615.966013.3%8 W · 52 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-40.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec4c…ee64backed No14c2,162$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+42.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe6e…074ebacked Yes34c2,137$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,402.742454.2%13 W · 11 L+9.4wins+0.39per pick15cpaid+308.2%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x0774…da5dbacked No3c2,121$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.241915.8%3 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-39.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked No7c2,089$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.7444224.4%108 W · 334 L+22.2wins+0.05per pick19cpaid+19.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes30c2,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,40042738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xffd8…6d54backed No6c2,000$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1254015%6 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick10cpaid-21.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed No1c1,986$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.523534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-41.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked No2c1,934$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.07629.7%6 W · 56 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked No17c1,907$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.8329653.7%159 W · 137 L+20.2wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+104.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe3f8…2515backed Yes37c1,899$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.081145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick27cpaid+252.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c69…51cabacked Yes27c1,856$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,360.2913518.5%25 W · 110 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-16%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c85…31d4backed Yes20c1,788$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,426.0410226.5%27 W · 75 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No17c1,761$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.2442311.6%49 W · 374 L-2.0wins0.00per pick12cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5de…8a02backed No53c1,712$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9849…2ee5backed Yes14c1,692$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.963122.6%7 W · 24 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f8f…40cfbacked Yes38c1,666$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.471650%8 W · 8 L+4.5wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+87.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes49c1,659$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.6621034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.