Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46a32e1e3b18924ae99b88e1072f7efa13a92943a33b8d4d437ac37efc82fd6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,718 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 64c | 3,840$2,439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.3 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d1…cdc9backed Yes | 50c | 2,949$1,474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,474.25 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 2,910$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.2 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 1,719$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.56 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 64c | 1,201$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.95 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…3529backed No | 48c | 1,082$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 47c | 1,050$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.76 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 24c | 990$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.95 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 77c | 811$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.53 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 59c | 508.47$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +152.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 75c | 399.88$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.9 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 21c | 391.08$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.47 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…8132backed Yes | 20c | 299.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d39…a4fbbacked No | 40c | 280.95$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.57 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Yes | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed Yes | 42c | 250.55$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.28 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…7776backed No | 76c | 238.62$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ca…907cbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 44c | 159$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.96 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 33c | 148.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.15 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 24c | 119.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 39c | 118$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Yes | 13c | 116.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb23e…362bbacked No | 75c | 115.57$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 23c | 89.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 24c | 88.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b7…de43backed Yes | 24c | 80$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 52c | 76.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 75c | 62.77$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebc…8b41backed Yes | 60c | 62.5$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.29per pick | 54cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x452f…b277backed Yes | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 34c | 56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 60c | 51.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked No | 33c | 47.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 79c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked No | 56c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 32c | 40.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.85 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked No | 51c | 39.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked No | 45c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Yes | 36c | 38.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8458…b67abacked Yes | 55c | 36.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 34c | 36.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 62c | 35.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…e889backed Yes | 44c | 30.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 30.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4178…8b48backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed No | 67c | 23.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-03-08?No won
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-03-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.