Mls · resolved market
Will Toronto FC win on 2026-03-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5630fb8240132b10bc05b705e0e277f798ed80d38797d761ceb9e0f5ec9b25d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,530 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 75c | 2,500$1,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,875 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 62c | 2,080$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$788.41 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 76c | 1,859$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,407.37 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 24c | 1,428$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,090.5 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 46c | 1,279$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.8 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 24c | 1,128$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.8 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,030$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780.4 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 879.66$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.66 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 13c | 666.66$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.99 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 50c | 599.65$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.31 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…1302backed Yes | 20c | 534.14$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 20c | 495.99$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Yes | 27c | 462.96$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 24c | 458.67$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.78 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 76c | 396$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.81 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c7…8d29backed Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a92…6941backed No | 4c | 349.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 310.09$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.88 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 79c | 297.18$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.77 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 28c | 252.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.63 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 35c | 251.49$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.3 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 17c | 214.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.87 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 78c | 200.71$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…031ebacked Yes | 25c | 200$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.66 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Yes | 13c | 189.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.7 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 51c | 172$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d3…22d1backed Yes | 23c | 154$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +220.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 65c | 119$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 111.5$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.84 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 41c | 104$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 80c | 103.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 190 | 44.7%85 W · 105 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Yes | 22c | 95.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +345.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 27c | 90.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.04 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Yes | 60c | 83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 22c | 73.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.35 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.18 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…7ddebacked Yes | 21c | 66.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 66.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 78c | 62.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…2391backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Yes | 19c | 62.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 24c | 60.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +313%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 21c | 49.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 25c | 48.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 54c | 38.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.87 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 31c | 37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc2…8c9abacked Yes | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…5638backed No | 79c | 34.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 77cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 33c | 32.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 26.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked No | 76c | 23.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 22.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Yes | 80c | 18.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb47d…fb65backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 80c | 16.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Toronto FC win on 2026-03-08?this page
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Toronto FC end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-03-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.