Commodities · resolved market
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18cc783dc22e861a77278f463f791161b4a5b6d5836b67e61b981e53a0b1f789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 173 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 10c | 4,150$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188b…6003backed Yes | 30c | 3,990$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 60c | 3,199$1,909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,289.83 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 19c | 2,957$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.86 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 27c | 2,546$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.44 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 8c | 2,147$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.98 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 11c | 1,885$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.07 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fe…a5adbacked Yes | 10c | 1,869$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,543$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.19 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 11c | 1,482$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.03 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…e196backed Yes | 24c | 1,437$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.81 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4c…73eabacked Yes | 15c | 1,400$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.03 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,351$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.81 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed No | 56c | 1,306$731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.01 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 3c | 1,204$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.36 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,106$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.75 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,049$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 10c | 1,049$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 18c | 1,044$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.71 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…e4f5backed Yes | 10c | 993.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…84dcbacked Yes | 21c | 950.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 8c | 945.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.63 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 12c | 924.82$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x60d5…d263backed Yes | 3c | 924.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 22c | 909.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.30per pick | 44cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 861.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 78c | 794$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.68 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad66…e188backed Yes | 9c | 730$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf275…01cbbacked Yes | 12c | 682.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 51c | 667.52$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.51 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 10c | 639.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c1…a397backed Yes | 12c | 620.84$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.35 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b9…dc25backed Yes | 6c | 608.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6547…82b3backed Yes | 35c | 595.4$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0e…9818backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 25c | 551.56$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 18c | 524.24$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.36 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 520.46$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 519.79$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked No | 35c | 515.67$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.34 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 49c | 511.25$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.45 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276e…ac88backed Yes | 29c | 511.15$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 70c | 500$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc21b…31d1backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 11c | 459.09$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 11c | 445.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked No | 70c | 428.61$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.61 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 73c | 428.53$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.71 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…3128backed Yes | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 50c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea7…bcd9backed Yes | 35c | 390.8$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 74c | 387.35$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.85 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ba…edd8backed Yes | 5c | 372.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…2a66backed Yes | 11c | 369.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 44c | 350.94$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.97 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6425…591bbacked Yes | 7c | 342.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…d747backed Yes | 41c | 300$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.6 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 34c | 299.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 12c | 275$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 79c | 270.68$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 265.75$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecb…fb4dbacked Yes | 12c | 252.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 74c | 252.09$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…7a49backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed Yes | 15c | 234.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.19 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…0b03backed Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7366…2818backed Yes | 14c | 221.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 43c | 220.05$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed No | 49c | 218.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a57…9299backed Yes | 21c | 217.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc384…ec9ebacked Yes | 22c | 216.46$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…2eb0backed Yes | 23c | 213.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28e7…98b8backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 48c | 208.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 48c | 206.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a1…c29fbacked Yes | 66c | 205.67$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa681…8b89backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…25a4backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +422.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 14c | 195$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…e5c0backed Yes | 12c | 192.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafc5…866bbacked Yes | 12c | 188.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6c…0b29backed Yes | 11c | 175$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed Yes | 30c | 170.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 29c | 165$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.47 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…5b3bbacked Yes | 35c | 163.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x381e…ca9dbacked Yes | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255e…f6dcbacked Yes | 34c | 160$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5d…63edbacked Yes | 9c | 158.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 75c | 156.88$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.79 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e7…40b4backed Yes | 53c | 154.81$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…3245backed No | 66c | 151.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.52 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…37abbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…dbacbacked Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…620dbacked Yes | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…573dbacked No | 17c | 128.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.85per pick | 15cpaid | +555.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…2899backed Yes | 16c | 127.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.