Commodities · resolved market
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c67b6d6caa39a8d54a58efff83dba75182420fa245fd93e98cf0fb54876ea91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,718
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,882
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,718 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 80c | 14,174$11,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,891.03 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 11c | 13,186$1,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.41 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 5c | 11,297$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.17 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 13c | 7,752$1,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,004.11 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 19c | 6,224$1,205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,204.89 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1f4cbacked Yes | 6c | 5,135$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.24 | 39 | 7.7%3 W · 36 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…ecf2backed Yes | 9c | 5,075$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 19c | 4,000$752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.05 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -6.7wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 23c | 3,891$885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$885.49 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1a…214cbacked Yes | 5c | 2,550$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7d…ba78backed Yes | 6c | 2,100$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,005$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.36 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 20c | 2,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…a3d8backed Yes | 28c | 1,725$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…01cbbacked Yes | 12c | 1,541$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2501…7e28backed No | 70c | 1,482$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.44 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3b…4ae1backed Yes | 7c | 1,482$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,260$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.94 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,128$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 999.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.11 | 232 | 4.3%10 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc563…ce83backed Yes | 16c | 970$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1594…1766backed Yes | 10c | 968.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25db…28debacked Yes | 17c | 906.23$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.31 | 93 | 17.2%16 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 883.1$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 210 | 15.7%33 W · 177 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d1…734cbacked No | 77c | 775.79$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…620dbacked Yes | 6c | 729.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.54 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 634.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 81 | 2.5%2 W · 79 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 78c | 631.4$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.79 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 4c | 601$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 222 | 1.4%3 W · 219 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 22c | 590.9$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 353 | 34%120 W · 233 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa881…cd20backed Yes | 24c | 571.27$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 4c | 561$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.32 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 38.9%35 W · 55 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…1db9backed Yes | 23c | 500$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.96 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 19c | 460.66$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x568f…fe75backed Yes | 12c | 416.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6b…9390backed Yes | 5c | 392.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d3…3db7backed Yes | 18c | 380.98$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e3…5c79backed Yes | 22c | 357.16$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 73c | 349.86$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.46 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 343.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 75c | 323.24$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10c9…1696backed No | 80c | 307.62$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 23c | 307.18$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.51 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e2…e599backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 78c | 300$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 13c | 294.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 195 | 35.4%69 W · 126 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 23c | 292.93$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd966…af98backed Yes | 17c | 291.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 288.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed Yes | 22c | 287.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…9e65backed Yes | 14c | 280$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 246.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5e…332ebacked Yes | 5c | 239.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e9…bdacbacked No | 77c | 230.4$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2c…a739backed Yes | 12c | 216.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc384…ec9ebacked Yes | 12c | 216.16$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x45bd…d20abacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes | 9c | 199.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 8c | 197.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a57…9299backed Yes | 13c | 192.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e61…19bdbacked Yes | 22c | 192.14$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 75c | 188.01$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 180.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…5b3bbacked Yes | 23c | 174.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 74c | 160.02$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 87 | 34.5%30 W · 57 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e50…7a6bbacked No | 50c | 150.84$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…6e19backed Yes | 22c | 149.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 24c | 148$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…cb4ebacked Yes | 26c | 139.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8445…f319backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 72c | 136$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.08 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 76 | 61.8%47 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 13c | 128.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed No | 78c | 128.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafd0…83f2backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 120.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.9 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 9c | 117.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…62a0backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf02c…2c7ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 78c | 99.99$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb746…b040backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cea…ffd2backed No | 63c | 94.31$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 106 | 67.9%72 W · 34 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…34a1backed No | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…beebbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 31cpaid | +95%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 76c | 81.66$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | +17.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…05ddbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed No | 70c | 78.02$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 21c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2214…2fe9backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 58cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x931c…9d7fbacked Yes | 23c | 60.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed No | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2af5…82debacked No | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…12afbacked No | 65c | 46.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 39cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 73c | 40.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?this page
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?No won
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.