Commodities · resolved market
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78f97eed822885c3813ab7ba0ba41a5c1bb0ca0f0f622698bfc0460931aff51a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $327,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $327,363
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $327,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 468 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c72…dfb6backed No | 52c | 30,497$15,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,534.18 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked Yes | 38c | 25,424$9,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,704.05 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa241…45f7backed Yes | 33c | 13,252$4,323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,323.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066a…550dbacked No | 68c | 10,049$6,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,226.88 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed No | 59c | 8,206$4,870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,336.6 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f3…e086backed No | 62c | 8,075$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,074.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 43c | 7,336$3,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,125.12 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf505…7a35backed Yes | 39c | 6,626$2,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,589.72 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7de7…a9c8backed No | 74c | 5,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 2c | 4,805$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.27 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 26c | 4,764$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,232.92 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 51c | 4,389$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.68 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ec…6603backed No | 74c | 4,227$3,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,112.08 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes | 48c | 4,160$2,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,009 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +6.5wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +27%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1934…0a4bbacked Yes | 6c | 4,110$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.95 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedc2…ad9fbacked No | 73c | 3,540$2,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.92 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 28c | 3,500$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$994 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 3,425$2,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.26 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed Yes | 27c | 3,324$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.23 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb1…fb84backed No | 55c | 3,158$1,731 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.99 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 79c | 3,107$2,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.94 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 68c | 3,061$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$969.16 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 2,633$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.47 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e77…c4f3backed No | 62c | 2,500$1,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$949.98 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…5ffdbacked No | 61c | 2,472$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.29 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d0e…9818backed Yes | 22c | 2,286$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 2,280$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.98 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90da…4042backed Yes | 31c | 2,253$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$697.74 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ede…57c0backed Yes | 32c | 2,237$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.22 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5fe…d475backed Yes | 8c | 2,178$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.81 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca9…4c9fbacked Yes | 60c | 2,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd71…d70dbacked No | 71c | 1,959$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.39 | 9 | 100%9 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 59c | 1,936$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.9 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 59c | 1,920$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 42cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ce…e196backed Yes | 35c | 1,817$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.51 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 64c | 1,800$1,146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,146 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 32c | 1,667$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.66 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 80c | 1,643$1,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.69 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x89cd…4d7dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,615$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 66c | 1,604$1,059 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.78 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bc…1b57backed No | 38c | 1,592$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$992.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 27c | 1,556$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.14 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a57…9299backed Yes | 29c | 1,554$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.88 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 33cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…a3d8backed No | 32c | 1,520$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 23c | 1,483$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.02 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 34c | 1,478$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 34c | 1,453$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.93 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0a…3b4bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,391$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd414…a4dbbacked Yes | 29c | 1,270$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.97 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2c…7756backed Yes | 55c | 1,258$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$694.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -56%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x142d…5c3dbacked Yes | 24c | 1,235$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7b…8767backed Yes | 49c | 1,200$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e14…2a66backed Yes | 6c | 1,197$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 70c | 1,183$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.59 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,174$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.21 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fe…a5adbacked Yes | 22c | 1,172$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad66…e188backed Yes | 18c | 1,130$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed No | 44c | 1,126$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$633.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d91…7a49backed Yes | 33c | 1,102$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7523…4c4cbacked No | 58c | 1,073$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…1310backed Yes | 38c | 1,063$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb51e…f775backed Yes | 58c | 1,001$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8df9…468cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 38c | 1,000$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.59 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 31c | 962.88$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.7wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x163e…d14fbacked Yes | 23c | 952.71$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 33c | 944.13$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.56 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 900.21$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.87 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…cf31backed Yes | 9c | 878.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…725abacked Yes | 19c | 827.31$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.47 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…84dcbacked Yes | 38c | 796.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561e…2093backed Yes | 64c | 792.43$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 47c | 770.03$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.19 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdee8…1c24backed Yes | 8c | 769.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 63c | 764.51$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.84 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 74c | 739.59$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.04 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3332…cf9dbacked No | 64c | 730.09$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed No | 66c | 722.96$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.51 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90e3…0c77backed No | 70c | 713.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2bb…029ebacked Yes | 28c | 711.47$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ca…7229backed No | 69c | 700$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed No | 72c | 696.68$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…9e23backed Yes | 29c | 690.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 62c | 672.42$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.3 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55c7…b063backed Yes | 12c | 654.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed No | 46c | 652.34$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.39 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +89.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 68c | 650$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 71c | 642.24$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.23 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed Yes | 64c | 642.15$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.24 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 80c | 618.23$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.55 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed Yes | 34c | 617.49$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 28c | 600$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…1943backed Yes | 16c | 596.06$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…b245backed Yes | 28c | 564.38$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 17c | 534.45$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.2 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 41c | 521.27$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.02 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 520.42$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.53 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2643…5cc6backed Yes | 29c | 519$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7491…ada0backed No | 62c | 512.63$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.35 | 38 | 73.7%28 W · 10 L | +6.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed No | 71c | 510.99$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?this page
- Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?No won
- Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?No won
- Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.