TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x06e1…3245

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
39
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick47cpaid+164%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.4
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$13
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$22
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$23
Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+170.2%+$85.08
Will Mojtaba Khamenei tweet again on March 23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$15.6
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.5
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$48.46
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+1,773.5%+$221.68
All 11 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 31, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$67
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+25%+$40
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.29
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$12.6
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$18.4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.92
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+120.3%+$71
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick69cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-27.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$30.9
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$223Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.97
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Mar 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Rodynske by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.5
Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.72
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.