Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x350b732d1cef0a4da7cc8077fc95a866a746ad29d390745d4a2e1b86ebbaecff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,229,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,224,510
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,229,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 569 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3db…0f98backed No | 1c | 42,622$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.03 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +11.2wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 16c | 28,741$4,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,461.99 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed Yes | 5c | 26,194$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,777.44 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 11c | 26,076$2,956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,956.02 | 362 | 27.9%101 W · 261 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 20c | 21,977$4,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,487.38 | 105 | 28.6%30 W · 75 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf26…39a6backed No | 1c | 17,960$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.45 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +38%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 0c | 17,960$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.92 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 1c | 16,682$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.46 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…e55cbacked No | 1c | 14,227$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.31 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked No | 5c | 12,396$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.2 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…3591backed No | 10c | 11,373$1,090 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,090.29 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 10,920$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 12c | 10,531$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,222.57 | 264 | 29.2%77 W · 187 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 20c | 10,352$2,056 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,056.07 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 75c | 10,209$7,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,551.32 | 353 | 55.5%196 W · 157 L | +36.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x122a…71c2backed No | 22c | 9,848$2,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,178.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaa…51dfbacked No | 1c | 9,494$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 79 | 38%30 W · 49 L | +9.6wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb9…9725backed No | 1c | 9,467$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | +7.0wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 60c | 8,830$5,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,572.6 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 32c | 8,423$2,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,685.03 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed No | 18c | 7,833$1,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,440.69 | 88 | 18.2%16 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…ee81backed Yes | 78c | 7,695$6,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,656.56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +284.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5b…8167backed Yes | 73c | 7,673$5,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked No | 3c | 6,845$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.07 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 4c | 6,579$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,318.18 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80a0…5708backed Yes | 63c | 6,199$3,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,290.57 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 26c | 5,426$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.56 | 248 | 39.5%98 W · 150 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 76c | 5,185$3,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,252.24 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked No | 22c | 5,119$1,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.05 | 170 | 18.2%31 W · 139 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 10c | 4,938$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,456.9 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a068backed No | 23c | 4,299$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.59 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcc…d87cbacked Yes | 68c | 4,220$2,885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.67 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked No | 2c | 4,100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed Yes | 76c | 4,058$3,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.61 | 134 | 41.8%56 W · 78 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x183a…d514backed No | 38c | 4,000$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,539.99 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 39c | 3,884$1,529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,354.44 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 15c | 3,832$583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.51 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8308…ca4bbacked No | 17c | 3,800$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed No | 2c | 3,491$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.18 | 202 | 35.6%72 W · 130 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…8ffebacked Yes | 77c | 3,398$2,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.96 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed No | 11c | 3,300$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.58 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0a4…41c2backed Yes | 16c | 3,270$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,746.92 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda9e…ac09backed Yes | 78c | 3,140$2,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.96 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 51c | 3,126$1,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,582.99 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 73c | 3,065$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.89 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2822…3f0cbacked No | 8c | 3,040$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.07 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 21c | 2,922$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,302.33 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked No | 9c | 2,800$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.4 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…d328backed No | 15c | 2,768$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 11c | 2,703$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,405.23 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab8…b955backed No | 15c | 2,697$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.22 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 78c | 2,592$2,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.44 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…68fbbacked Yes | 77c | 2,591$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9d…c0dabacked Yes | 72c | 2,541$1,840 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.37 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 32cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef8d…4872backed Yes | 72c | 2,507$1,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed No | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb7…5e2abacked Yes | 70c | 2,500$1,743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6a…f9d0backed No | 35c | 2,454$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.41 | 126 | 34.9%44 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 78c | 2,376$1,864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.35 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 22c | 2,330$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.32 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | +9.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 71c | 2,287$1,616 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$671.55 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa837…fd40backed Yes | 63c | 2,215$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.28 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 13c | 2,190$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 14c | 2,119$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.05 | 126 | 16.7%21 W · 105 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b44…264ebacked No | 19c | 2,106$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.98 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +9.7wins | +0.13per pick | 36cpaid | +156.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 2,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 65c | 2,059$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.72 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked No | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 16c | 2,000$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.22 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 68c | 1,967$1,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.41 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd026…d74bbacked No | 4c | 1,941$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +61.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,894$1,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.86 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 18c | 1,849$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,510.72 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 17c | 1,841$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.7 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…e53dbacked No | 32c | 1,810$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.73 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 11c | 1,800$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.96 | 75 | 20%15 W · 60 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c3…3f7fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,783$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,685.38 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb27e…29d4backed Yes | 79c | 1,762$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f09…2848backed Yes | 6c | 1,732$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,627.95 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf87b…76bbbacked No | 17c | 1,700$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 26 | 3.8%1 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8250…a59bbacked Yes | 22c | 1,628$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,274.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed No | 24c | 1,627$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.83 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 52c | 1,609$829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.82 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,601$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,432.89 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,597$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,389.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…eb1bbacked No | 41c | 1,583$652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$651.8 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94dd…7b9ebacked No | 9c | 1,554$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.91 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,536$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4564…4a11backed Yes | 7c | 1,527$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,426.53 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +5.9wins | +0.39per pick | 21cpaid | +396.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,522$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,328.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 69c | 1,507$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.93 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd8…0d38backed Yes | 66c | 1,500$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.1 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae6…e440backed No | 2c | 1,487$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed Yes | 13c | 1,445$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2154…7b8dbacked No | 8c | 1,424$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes | 10c | 1,396$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.51 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +138%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed9…d381backed No | 29c | 1,388$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…00d6backed Yes | 13c | 1,385$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,208.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 75c | 1,347$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.48 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed No | 75c | 1,338$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?this page
- Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?No won
- Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.