Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x815b2f0e19a03e8f9e7b1cf625bea2b96a9f2644992c06bd76bd3b2f38dfea4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 221 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 0c | 6,336$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…113fbacked Yes | 12c | 3,434$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked No | 80c | 3,299$2,637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.01 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 2c | 3,089$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 9c | 2,363$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.4 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 18c | 2,020$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 5c | 1,937$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.91 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790f…8ca5backed Yes | 15c | 1,927$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b74…778cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,904$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 12cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,671$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.56 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 7c | 1,578$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 1,499$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 6c | 1,428$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.13 | 247 | 6.9%17 W · 230 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 7c | 1,383$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.01 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 64c | 1,361$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.06 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04db…a2dcbacked Yes | 15c | 1,263$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.95 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 6c | 1,172$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.59 | 144 | 2.8%4 W · 140 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…af0bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,106$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 10c | 1,102$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.73 | 366 | 26.8%98 W · 268 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe197…8143backed Yes | 2c | 1,059$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 83 | 6%5 W · 78 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 4c | 980.62$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.06 | 147 | 7.5%11 W · 136 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785b…eba3backed No | 74c | 955.19$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 951.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 6c | 917.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 143 | 0.7%1 W · 142 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -92.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 4c | 800$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.9 | 69 | 4.3%3 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccca…4c02backed Yes | 5c | 773.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 15c | 750$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50e…d9f4backed Yes | 18c | 750$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 19c | 715.37$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.14 | 486 | 30.5%148 W · 338 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 6c | 700$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.13 | 442 | 24.4%108 W · 334 L | +22.2wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6608…35d3backed Yes | 8c | 695$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.65 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8488…588cbacked No | 72c | 691.08$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d3a…d8b8backed Yes | 17c | 679.11$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.66 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 62c | 652.35$403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.73 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac5…cf2ebacked Yes | 46c | 646.65$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5342…57bcbacked No | 65c | 614.28$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e4e…7acabacked Yes | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…6400backed No | 76c | 557.86$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.92 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed No | 78c | 550$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.1 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0527…20b1backed Yes | 4c | 548.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 115 | 1.7%2 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda11…22b0backed Yes | 16c | 544.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…aef5backed Yes | 22c | 494.28$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 3c | 478.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4863…0547backed Yes | 18c | 471.39$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked No | 53c | 470.52$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.14 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 27c | 470$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.87 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 80c | 425.41$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked Yes | 32c | 411.57$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.97 | 113 | 50.4%57 W · 56 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed Yes | 4c | 404.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 77 | 22.1%17 W · 60 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd280…82b3backed No | 69c | 392.37$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 4c | 389.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +137.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf75…3880backed Yes | 34c | 381.38$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.34 | 133 | 21.8%29 W · 104 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7847…bdcdbacked Yes | 26c | 380.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 69c | 368.48$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.08 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd2…0562backed Yes | 7c | 359.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2db2…9dc4backed Yes | 16c | 358.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 53c | 352.31$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.01 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…639ebacked Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 73c | 338.23$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 19c | 328.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.66 | 290 | 27.9%81 W · 209 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…500cbacked Yes | 7c | 314.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +211.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee1…e2bbbacked Yes | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e8…4d25backed No | 65c | 305.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb5…4438backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7665…8ca9backed Yes | 42c | 300$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506d…6654backed No | 58c | 299.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa88d…221cbacked No | 76c | 299.98$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 73c | 287.18$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 280.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 238 | 4.6%11 W · 227 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 15c | 274.04$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6181…ad60backed Yes | 14c | 274$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ea…d896backed Yes | 25c | 267.47$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…ed6ebacked No | 79c | 266.82$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.82 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 260.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.46 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8572…2f2ebacked No | 77c | 258.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e5…293bbacked No | 74c | 256.36$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3f…43dcbacked Yes | 25c | 250$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 104 | 35.6%37 W · 67 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bb…2667backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…b464backed Yes | 5c | 242.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 64 | 7.8%5 W · 59 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607a…1813backed Yes | 32c | 232.17$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b46…c611backed Yes | 26c | 230$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…3772backed Yes | 44c | 227.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 31c | 225.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.3 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 26c | 221.43$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.21 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3e…9914backed Yes | 34c | 212.43$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.82 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 5c | 210.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 11c | 204.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6913…8b98backed Yes | 41c | 204.59$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa32…4443backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed No | 73c | 200$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf85…86e1backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 31.8%14 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x738b…6dc9backed No | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…8e8abacked No | 62c | 199.99$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed No | 75c | 198.66$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 28c | 194.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.15 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 15c | 174$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…868fbacked Yes | 9c | 173.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfa6…4eb6backed No | 59c | 170.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.08 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?this page
- Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.