Middle East · resolved market
Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4fb690d5a207fc38493c42b7321535fce98eb780c8cd8508d00624c83c11b89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 0c | 7,218$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 0c | 5,504$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 266 | 19.2%51 W · 215 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e5…f6fcbacked No | 2c | 3,527$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.49 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 14c | 2,685$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.75 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed No | 2c | 2,004$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3662…74d9backed No | 4c | 1,548$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +179.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…bd0ebacked No | 65c | 1,333$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.45 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…b54dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,039$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.35 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86c5…4c23backed No | 69c | 1,022$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.18 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -4.9wins | -0.37per pick | 45cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked No | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x078b…7e2fbacked No | 23c | 995.12$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 65c | 901$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.65 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 29c | 873.98$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.28 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9612…205abacked No | 56c | 849.98$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.99 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc406…07d9backed No | 68c | 846.5$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.55 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes | 35c | 838$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.7 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4082…87d7backed No | 3c | 779.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203f…f7a5backed Yes | 31c | 733$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 43cpaid | +141.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 20c | 728.97$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.15 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +41.8wins | +0.30per pick | 34cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 78+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…2393backed No | 72c | 646.78$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.01 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…34e0backed Yes | 31c | 617$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d03…ef8ebacked No | 70c | 614$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 45cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 79c | 607$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.7 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | +18.4wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked Yes | 31c | 606$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes | 35c | 531$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…1598backed No | 65c | 518$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.7 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No | 72c | 516$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb38e…272bbacked No | 9c | 499.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 46 | 8.7%4 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 6c | 494.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -72%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcce4…d328backed No | 9c | 483.02$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked No | 73c | 479$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.67 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed No | 24c | 474.17$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.92 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe02b…e86dbacked Yes | 43c | 469$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.33 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed No | 69c | 467$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.23 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x846d…4ab2backed Yes | 35c | 458$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.7 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb8…ec8dbacked No | 71c | 457$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.47 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 29c | 457$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.47 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…735dbacked No | 57c | 429$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.53 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92a6…8b84backed Yes | 80c | 428.53$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.7 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a92…d2e9backed No | 69c | 422$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…ce56backed No | 64c | 402$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -27%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48ed…33bebacked No | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a4…aa57backed Yes | 27c | 357$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.61 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f68…2238backed Yes | 30c | 348$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.6 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cb…6e8fbacked No | 66c | 307.72$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.3 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d23…aa07backed No | 65c | 300$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes | 28c | 295$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked No | 57c | 266$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.62 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b32…c8a9backed Yes | 30c | 266$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 8c | 260.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x51a8…6f43backed Yes | 34c | 238.11$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +200%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x630e…513bbacked No | 10c | 237.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f0…f05fbacked Yes | 36c | 234$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5f…11c5backed Yes | 71c | 232.11$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.31 | 143 | 25.9%37 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 27c | 222$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.06 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebb…0614backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -12.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…3f18backed No | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 57cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3acc…973dbacked No | 69c | 195$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.55 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d9…2a4ebacked Yes | 28c | 191$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 43c | 191$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…56e8backed Yes | 27c | 174$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.02 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7a8…7efabacked No | 73c | 171$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.83 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 57cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 59c | 170.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +17.8wins | +0.08per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…4578backed Yes | 36c | 168$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…aa14backed Yes | 45c | 157.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.25 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +3.9wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xea5a…e6aebacked Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…3b37backed No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…bc22backed No | 74c | 111.88$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.2wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac7a…414fbacked No | 46c | 109$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed No | 73c | 103$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e93…353fbacked No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x581d…b2e3backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 207 | 49.3%102 W · 105 L | -23.0wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0978…3137backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 57cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f42…6496backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…6e67backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3afa…d5b7backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc911…fa2bbacked No | 65c | 99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 23c | 89.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 323 | 45.2%146 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81d1…4e30backed No | 15c | 84.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x364f…e9c9backed No | 26c | 78.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4508…941fbacked No | 66c | 75.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 31c | 68.03$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5910…a99cbacked No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcda…2c23backed No | 31c | 52.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae9e…f97abacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…1f3ebacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 216 | 31.9%69 W · 147 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…e9a6backed No | 74c | 48.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…b754backed Yes | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 57c | 47.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 72c | 44.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 291 | 29.9%87 W · 204 L | +21.5wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x19b4…9518backed No | 61c | 35.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d24…a2e9backed Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…5a09backed No | 62c | 32.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +177%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f57…3272backed Yes | 47c | 27.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e92…395abacked No | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 72c | 25.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran strike on Qatar by March 31, 2026?this page
- Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Yes won
- Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.