TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,855,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,054,085

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,855,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 357 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f18…6b94backed No2c50,751$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.5330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6872…876fbacked No0c45,401$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.959613.5%13 W · 83 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-54.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ebf…83cebacked No1c43,197$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.437540%30 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-16.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No0c27,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.352742.9%8 W · 266 L+0.5wins0.00per pick3cpaid-58.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c18…a04cbacked No2c27,037$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5285315.1%8 W · 45 L-5.5wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdb8e…962bbacked No4c21,045$807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.581540%6 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked No1c19,477$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.1717111.7%20 W · 151 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c15,841$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.623103.9%12 W · 298 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb85…f401backed No2c12,249$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.671050%5 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+62.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc021…1fa8backed No2c11,941$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.9410837%40 W · 68 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No2c10,728$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.077135.6%40 W · 673 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed No3c10,432$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.32036.4%13 W · 190 L-0.1wins0.00per pick6cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x282f…3c26backed No2c10,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.72922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick39cpaid-66.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed No3c10,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2501656.3%9 W · 7 L+3.9wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+37.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1a26…4ce4backed No2c10,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51e1…5ec9backed No3c9,515$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.6150%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fde…0ab6backed No2c8,681$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x111d…532abacked No0c7,280$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2870%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a3c…2db9backed No2c6,863$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164437%3 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-48%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No11c6,633$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$708.5626619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe074…10e2backed No2c6,263$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+139.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2283…b1d8backed No2c6,123$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick18cpaid+101%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed No2c5,882$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.963717%26 W · 345 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56bf…5c19backed No5c5,759$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.924537.8%17 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-22.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00c0…4314backed No1c5,692$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick1cpaid+148.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4497…7b78backed No2c5,656$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0180%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa57…2b2bbacked No2c5,433$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6448…7654backed No2c5,340$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a77…6723backed No1c5,099$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2282…1051backed No0c5,000$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233616.7%6 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+39.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e5e…e60abacked No1c4,835$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7ee…0e97backed Yes78c4,647$3,604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.016045%27 W · 33 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2771…d030backed No11c4,484$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4992910.3%3 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60d5…7839backed No2c4,453$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801020%2 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick13cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2711…82b2backed No1c4,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No9c3,960$375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.4911818.6%22 W · 96 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4d6…966bbacked No1c3,955$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.21527.7%4 W · 48 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-47.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed No11c3,843$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.7910313.6%14 W · 89 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x057f…94a3backed No1c3,841$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552931%9 W · 20 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No2c3,708$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.334195.3%22 W · 397 L+1.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7494…680dbacked No3c3,633$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100180%0 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No11c3,488$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.897341.1%30 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…0f47backed No2c3,316$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84e1…61d0backed No2c3,158$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602512%3 W · 22 L+1.8wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+133.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeeb9…6f7abacked No11c3,134$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.851145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+103.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa83…cd8bbacked No3c2,918$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.4130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ce…135abacked No2c2,875$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.592321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No2c2,852$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478616.3%14 W · 72 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-65.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66b…b1d1backed No2c2,781$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.365733.3%19 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes76c2,684$2,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.8713246.2%61 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa056…0f70backed No1c2,658$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.450%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf218…09b0backed No2c2,652$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.58633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…8397backed No2c2,613$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555738.6%22 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-9.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No2c2,600$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.51693.6%6 W · 163 L-0.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc08…a137backed No13c2,586$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No12c2,535$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.6832243.5%140 W · 182 L+13.2wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes74c2,520$1,858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.5913255.3%73 W · 59 L+9.1wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60a2…e7bfbacked No2c2,511$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c2,379$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.584769.9%47 W · 429 L+15.1wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+75.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92a6…19bbbacked No8c2,376$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d62…42cabacked No3c2,348$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d7…9679backed No2c2,342$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes55c2,220$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$993.7236227.9%101 W · 261 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-28.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4e9…5fecbacked No1c2,213$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.175516.4%9 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick13cpaid-16.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf058…955bbacked No11c2,174$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.56250%0 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x74b0…5ef2backed No2c2,123$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c2,102$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.141703.5%6 W · 164 L+0.6wins0.00per pick3cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed No1c2,095$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3320617%35 W · 171 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-33.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c63…1814backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b6e…9f3abacked No2c2,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2fb…70ebbacked No2c1,963$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2140%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed No2c1,900$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3819119.9%38 W · 153 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb92…5f78backed No2c1,853$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8230%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd83…355cbacked No29c1,827$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.363351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d16…821abacked No3c1,815$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.85425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945d…0bc0backed No3c1,782$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x671a…b8f1backed No3c1,745$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504055%22 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.15per pick40cpaid+33.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes71c1,707$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.550130.5%153 W · 348 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c3…cb57backed No1c1,683$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…a091backed No2c1,680$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3470%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf96c…e0ddbacked No2c1,678$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick16cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1851…ae47backed No2c1,600$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.224712.1%30 W · 217 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c7…59cfbacked No6c1,545$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No5c1,542$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.272438.2%20 W · 223 L+0.4wins0.00per pick8cpaid-47.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b6e…6cedbacked No2c1,525$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-64.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ab…1f23backed No2c1,508$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fd…87e3backed No3c1,508$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee8d…d09abacked No2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e1…f3fdbacked No2c1,409$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked No33c1,364$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.4820143.3%87 W · 114 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7875…9be3backed No1c1,343$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4148…efe7backed No3c1,327$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.14714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-78.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No11c1,326$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.811,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0302…0279backed No1c1,320$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x429a…c211backed No1c1,283$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x635e…cd66backed No2c1,277$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…b48fbacked No55c1,276$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7001225%3 W · 9 L-3.4wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-65.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa7ab…2f81backed No2c1,250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x237a…aad9backed No2c1,250$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.51266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.9wins+0.32per pick34cpaid+152.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked No2c1,230$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012544%55 W · 70 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.