Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe6dbc74a935de90a60a207c7194c6c5a95d642a37167777e7592abf69acc7120

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $74,955
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $65,996

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,955 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x45a2…3c01backed Yes	4c	4,131$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.15	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-67.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x961a…aa6abacked Yes	5c	3,908$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.79	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes	11c	2,315$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.79	45	11.1%5 W · 40 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6407…b3d6backed Yes	3c	2,268$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.6wins	+0.10per pick	7cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,114$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.63	507	1.4%7 W · 500 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6dd…98eebacked Yes	8c	1,500$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.51	201	43.3%87 W · 114 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf9a…6d20backed Yes	13c	1,196$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.86	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-55%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fc8…7c5fbacked Yes	34c	1,082$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	174	14.4%25 W · 149 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	6c	960.35$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.57	113	20.4%23 W · 90 L	+10.2wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x56bf…5c19backed No	77c	871.2$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$203.45	45	37.8%17 W · 28 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	31cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	1c	769.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	148	8.1%12 W · 136 L	+4.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+238.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x789a…1ddabacked Yes	6c	684.48$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.26	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes	2c	683.38$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	48	14.6%7 W · 41 L	-5.5wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes	2c	651.15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	155	23.2%36 W · 119 L	+12.1wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+64.5%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	607.04$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.03	713	5.6%40 W · 673 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes	3c	576.3$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.08	423	11.6%49 W · 374 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75bd…1feabacked Yes	10c	575.9$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.57	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e40…fc98backed Yes	50c	519.72$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.02	44	40.9%18 W · 26 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	37cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	17c	457$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.69	1,558	7.2%112 W · 1,446 L	-35.1wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa465…6b06backed Yes	44c	454.44$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	+72.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	4c	449.5$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.04	371	7%26 W · 345 L	+10.6wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef39…78f2backed Yes	12c	410.98$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.13per pick	37cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c4a…1b2fbacked Yes	31c	393.79$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.21	120	40%48 W · 72 L	-9.6wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	13c	388.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.83	243	8.2%20 W · 223 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	379.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.79	116	15.5%18 W · 98 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-50%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28ab…2048backed No	55c	364.28$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.29	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	-8.1wins	-0.09per pick	56cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x675f…a63bbacked Yes	12c	338.72$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88e2…7489backed Yes	50c	322.21$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.45	86	33.7%29 W · 57 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef4c…8b09backed Yes	11c	314.29$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4de…424cbacked Yes	10c	296.03$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.2	94	36.2%34 W · 60 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x152f…c7e7backed Yes	42c	295.71$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.32	103	13.6%14 W · 89 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-23%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56e5…f1d0backed Yes	38c	293.67$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9363…52cabacked Yes	14c	223.79$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.23	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	+61.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No	75c	219.22$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.29	501	30.5%153 W · 348 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes	12c	210.44$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.22	112	57.1%64 W · 48 L	+7.0wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ec2…d084backed Yes	10c	208.83$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	9c	206.77$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.14	396	21%83 W · 313 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	35cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd67d…5abcbacked Yes	5c	189.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+2.5wins	+0.31per pick	44cpaid	+417.2%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc442…8d9cbacked Yes	12c	170$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.48	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	30cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe43…98b5backed Yes	9c	168.13$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x225d…6c76backed No	74c	166.44$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.95	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	360	35.3%127 W · 233 L	-30.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed No	61c	89.95$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.14	63	66.7%42 W · 21 L	+5.9wins	+0.09per pick	57cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xacb2…97e2backed Yes	36c	65.59$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.56	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb03e…1091backed Yes	45c	61.75$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.85	20	80%16 W · 4 L	+3.0wins	+0.15per pick	65cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa915…7714backed Yes	51c	38.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No	48c	37$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.24	202	43.1%87 W · 115 L	+30.9wins	+0.15per pick	28cpaid	+39.1%equal weight	65+0.14 edge/pick
0x8790…165abacked Yes	41c	30.1$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.56per pick	56cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event