Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd1d85f7711d1d32b23e9838c5896650ada0b217b5138c572eb019e6c41f86c8

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $788,726
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $264,771

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $788,726 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Middle East
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x28b9…a995backed Yes	0c	99,999$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-3.1wins	-0.09per pick	22cpaid	-82.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes	0c	58,407$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.41	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-71.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbdda…8c7fbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes	0c	41,607$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.61	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-2.3wins	-0.12per pick	28cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x200e…1f66backed Yes	0c	39,406$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.41	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c12…79d9backed Yes	0c	35,124$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	49	6.1%3 W · 46 L	-2.7wins	-0.06per pick	12cpaid	-89.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84e1…61d0backed Yes	0c	25,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	25	12%3 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+133.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes	0c	21,376$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.38	310	3.9%12 W · 298 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf178…c931backed Yes	0c	20,314$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.31	12	0%0 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x613c…e423backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	30.5%18 W · 41 L	+3.2wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x170f…095bbacked Yes	1c	17,173$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+2.6wins	+0.11per pick	10cpaid	+122.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes	0c	14,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.26	123	43.9%54 W · 69 L	+15.1wins	+0.12per pick	32cpaid	+21.7%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9952…2edbbacked Yes	0c	14,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	0%0 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50af…8b52backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1c…544cbacked Yes	0c	10,571$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d6b…65dbbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82dc…625ebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.16per pick	13cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa901…ab04backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5695…1247backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	23	0%0 W · 23 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…c229backed Yes	0c	6,875$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	5.9%1 W · 16 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x40eb…3f31backed Yes	0c	6,646$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc079…8993backed Yes	0c	6,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d6e…d443backed Yes	0c	5,817$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc2eb…5977backed Yes	0c	5,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.27per pick	6cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8818…4bd7backed Yes	0c	5,173$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1956…1ef8backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	0%0 W · 8 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf1ff…149bbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes	0c	4,214$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.33	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-48.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f4…5348backed Yes	3c	3,460$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+2.1wins	+0.10per pick	18cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb935…204bbacked Yes	1c	2,483$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.04	48	4.2%2 W · 46 L	-3.2wins	-0.07per pick	11cpaid	-87.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes	0c	2,395$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	128	40.6%52 W · 76 L	+14.8wins	+0.12per pick	29cpaid	+67.1%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x906c…b60ebacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc9b9…fbf9backed Yes	1c	1,366$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+2.7wins	+0.17per pick	27cpaid	+100.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb223…156bbacked Yes	1c	1,309$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b74…778cbacked Yes	26c	1,158$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	+3.5wins	+0.12per pick	12cpaid	+32.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5df7…780dbacked Yes	2c	863.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	88	33%29 W · 59 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5681…43c1backed Yes	3c	628.71$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.41	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+3.7wins	+0.15per pick	18cpaid	+242.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x175f…374cbacked Yes	2c	499.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-88%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1be…7630backed Yes	5c	393.95$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-76.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb02…eeaebacked Yes	5c	192.26$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event