Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a82adce146a51aa3161e1c3526da8418e567a0718586ad829e0c518d4dbf397
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $601,686
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $601,686 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 0c | 99,901$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 48,125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.12 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf178…c931backed Yes | 0c | 32,248$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…9d04backed Yes | 0c | 21,221$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 96 | 13.5%13 W · 83 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,900$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 15,256$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.51 | 507 | 1.4%7 W · 500 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c18…a04cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,161$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.93 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45dc…e68cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,793$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8060…c73dbacked Yes | 1c | 10,431$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +265.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb223…156bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c0…4314backed Yes | 0c | 8,566$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 1cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3299…90ebbacked Yes | 0c | 5,717$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…955bbacked Yes | 1c | 5,700$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0e…6ebfbacked Yes | 0c | 4,941$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e9…5fecbacked Yes | 2c | 4,622$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 55 | 16.4%9 W · 46 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…33e4backed Yes | 1c | 4,605$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,720$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 713 | 5.6%40 W · 673 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fb…a6a2backed Yes | 0c | 3,355$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x675f…a63bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,131$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf6…2ecdbacked Yes | 0c | 3,064$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 0c | 2,593$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,063$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d5…2e07backed Yes | 2c | 1,814$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.79 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…5348backed Yes | 1c | 1,682$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 1c | 1,669$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 148 | 8.1%12 W · 136 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +238.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…a3bdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,364$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb935…204bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,241$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.04 | 48 | 4.2%2 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -87.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87a…51debacked Yes | 4c | 1,156$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 20cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f7…6745backed Yes | 2c | 1,035$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d84…2c67backed Yes | 2c | 944.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb3…caf3backed Yes | 1c | 758.77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 2c | 728.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +10.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…4e68backed Yes | 1c | 689.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…e0e6backed Yes | 2c | 676.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 52 | 42.3%22 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends before April 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 1, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 17, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 19, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 2, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 20, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 21, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 25, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 27, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 29, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 3, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 4, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 5, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 6, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 7, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.