Middle East · resolved market
Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66a07d808f8c2fc99536b277c509c6b415ffb2e17454f95bbd811f1ee65da389
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,693,662
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,693,662 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28b9…a995backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -82.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x613c…e423backed Yes | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d2…20dcbacked Yes | 0c | 36,544$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a28…0575backed Yes | 0c | 36,262$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc13e…d47dbacked Yes | 0c | 36,262$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67c2…b38fbacked Yes | 0c | 36,262$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4117…8cd4backed Yes | 0c | 36,247$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x852c…31a8backed Yes | 0c | 35,899$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe332…7b2abacked Yes | 0c | 35,899$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…49f5backed Yes | 0c | 35,899$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…476fbacked Yes | 0c | 35,899$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb24…b4debacked Yes | 0c | 35,899$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21e4…1517backed Yes | 0c | 35,899$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…36cbbacked Yes | 0c | 35,899$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ebe…81b7backed Yes | 0c | 35,899$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46c2…611bbacked Yes | 0c | 35,899$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ef…0607backed Yes | 0c | 35,418$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5db…60eabacked Yes | 0c | 30,598$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…4c68backed Yes | 0c | 23,879$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1189…1860backed Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb388…d0a1backed Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c09…74bfbacked Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9383…65dfbacked Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…2e63backed Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…38a7backed Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…35adbacked Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e10…e35abacked Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca3…1288backed Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…cd2abacked Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40a8…60a3backed Yes | 0c | 23,198$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa17e…3fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 23,111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9625…0135backed Yes | 0c | 23,111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cd…8019backed Yes | 0c | 23,111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d12…c36dbacked Yes | 0c | 22,941$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25d3…da39backed Yes | 0c | 22,941$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403e…4a9cbacked Yes | 0c | 22,696$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee55…1babbacked Yes | 0c | 22,410$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c12…79d9backed Yes | 0c | 21,833$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc6b…8115backed Yes | 0c | 21,779$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb0…d489backed Yes | 0c | 21,774$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b33…c174backed Yes | 0c | 21,724$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5416…6c49backed Yes | 0c | 21,724$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b4…15b2backed Yes | 0c | 21,224$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2724…7490backed Yes | 0c | 20,649$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc6…80c9backed Yes | 0c | 19,885$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x042c…6f51backed Yes | 0c | 19,885$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac02…99c5backed Yes | 0c | 18,987$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6da4…30efbacked Yes | 0c | 18,987$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05f6…3fe1backed Yes | 0c | 17,865$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a74…f4bdbacked Yes | 0c | 16,663$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x533e…d305backed Yes | 0c | 16,462$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | +15.1wins | +0.12per pick | 32cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ff…5101backed Yes | 0c | 15,938$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50af…8b52backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…625ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 13cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6954…9966backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +14.8wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…5348backed Yes | 1c | 3,510$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x175f…374cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,305$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -88%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 2,075$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 155 | 23.2%36 W · 119 L | +12.1wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,243$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 58 | 8.6%5 W · 53 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Military action against Iran ends on April 24, 2026?this page
- Military action against Iran continues through April 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends before April 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 1, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 10, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 11, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 12, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 13, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 14, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 15, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 16, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 17, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 18, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 19, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 2, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 20, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 21, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 22, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 23, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 25, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 26, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 27, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 28, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 29, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 3, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 30, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 4, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 5, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 6, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 7, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 8, 2026?No won
- Military action against Iran ends on April 9, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.