TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Military action against Iran ends on April 27, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$497,269
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,548

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $497,269 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x28b9…a995backed Yes0c100,000$100 inLost-$1003312.1%4 W · 29 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-82.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x170f…095bbacked Yes0c58,078$100 inLost-$1002321.7%5 W · 18 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick10cpaid+122.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x613c…e423backed Yes0c40,000$40 inLost-$405930.5%18 W · 41 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-19.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ccb…f152backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd675…153dbacked Yes0c12,718$13 inLost-$12.721915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.12per pick28cpaid-48.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x409f…543abacked Yes0c12,231$12 inLost-$12.231421.4%3 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-71.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50af…8b52backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost-$11140%0 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…2a1fbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1012343.9%54 W · 69 L+15.1wins+0.12per pick32cpaid+21.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x77ab…f08bbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8818…4bd7backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost-$1040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c1c…544cbacked Yes0c8,660$15 inLost-$15180%0 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes0c8,504$10 inLost-$10.034320.9%9 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-48.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f4…5348backed Yes1c6,396$50 inLost-$502128.6%6 W · 15 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick18cpaid-34.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a1e…bd03backed Yes0c4,800$10 inLost-$1012840.6%52 W · 76 L+14.8wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+67.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x175f…374cbacked Yes1c2,825$28 inLost-$27.83224.5%1 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-88%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb935…204bbacked Yes1c2,284$12 inLost-$11.99484.2%2 W · 46 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-87.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0689…5813backed Yes0c2,118$10 inLost-$101963.2%12 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+38.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2e7…843ebacked Yes1c2,079$15 inLost-$15.01588.6%5 W · 53 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick15cpaid-73.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9b9…fbf9backed Yes3c1,243$40 inLost-$401643.8%7 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+100.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb261…7211backed Yes2c659.57$11 inLost-$11.434814.6%7 W · 41 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b9d…8201backed Yes6c512.89$30 inLost-$3011454.4%62 W · 52 L+15.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+22.2%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5197…0490backed Yes6c313.34$20 inLost-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 32 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.